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Elections are not likely to happen in 2012 31/05/2012 | 22:06:14

The HAT and the Rajoelina political sphere, both continuously dented by the burden of their illegal power, have made a priority out of the organization of hurried presidential elections in 2012. The CENI-T (the local electoral commission) refused to issue any schedule, and made it tactfully clear in order not to irritate quite a tense ruling power, namely by keeping away from ruling this possibility to cast elections in 2012 out. Beatrice Atallah and her staff promised to eventually do what it would take so that preparations take a shorter time than the 8 months estimated by the United Nations’ experts.


Andry Rajoelina wants hurried elections in order to relieve his undisputed rule, and do away with the opposition deemed to boycott them. Will he get them or not? The transitional electoral commission provided the answer which sounds like: most likely. Beatrice Atallah, the commission’s president declared that elections would come true by the first week of November 2012, could preparations be tackled no later than right now.

The HAT is theoretically still able to complete the election’s couple of stages in November. Legislative elections at communal level are the most realistic expectations. It would take much longer to issue any presidential election’s first stage result. The potential second stage would be in for being proclaimed in December. The electoral code forbids however the organization of any election during the rainy season. No election can legally be accepted if they take place between December and March.

The president of the CENIT declared thus that an electoral calendar would anyway be ready by the end of this year’s August. Then, three months will have to go by, in accordance with the electoral code, prior to opening the official electoral showdown. The CENIT’s challenge is mathematically a done deal, but reality has repeatedly been proving much different from theory, hasn’t it? Her speech happens to be more politically than practically significant as a matter of fact.

Mrs. Atallah declared: “during the six months long preparations, the electoral register will have to be thoroughly revised”. The electoral commission is for the time being technically unable to complete this mission the way it is supposed to be. The transitional power is bound to put Ar 9 billions on the table for the elections. An additional census is in these conditions absolutely off the point. The latest electoral register’s version used, or misused by Andry Rajoelina’s personal referendum will have to be slightly altered, all for most updated.

Can the CENIT possibly run without money? The so named national unity prime minister argued that technicians, namely the civilian administrators, the Interior Ministry’s agents and the Fokontanies’ presidents would be bound to support the electoral commission’s action. The CENIT will be working a register out, which it did not personally draft, and consequently not be able to check each and every irregularity out.

Beatrice Atallah and her staff are more inclined to expect Madagascar’s foreign support providers to pledge support to the CENIT’s action in order to keep up with its much optimistic program. These very foreign support providers do however remain very skeptical in face of the daily evolution of the political situation in Madagascar. The president of the CENIT consequently pressures the political spheres to come to any possible common ground prior to the announcement of any electoral calendar. They will have to do so before the end of August. Any politically unilateral election will never ever be widely accepted. Besides, various codes concerning the organization of various forms of elections are still to be drafted and passed by the transitional parliament.

“Even though we are supposed to issue an electoral deadline, we will not do so!” emphasized the president of the CENI. Technical, financial and first of all political factors must be fulfilled prior to this stage. Considering theses hurdles, even the announcement of any electoral calendar by the end of August happens to be everything but a certainty.


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04/06/2012 | 21:23:02
The SADC is bound to organize face to face talks between the main wire pullers in this Malagasy political crisis in order to settle it down once for all. The idea stemmed from Marc Ravalomanana. Andry Rajoelina, with every single day more and more stranded in the ropes, has no other choice but giving in, complying and accepting to listen and speak with the legal president illegally ousted by his putsch in 2009. The regional organization would entrust the referee’s whistle to Joaquim Chissano, Mozambique’s former president. [See]

20/05/2012 | 19:31:21
Thousands of people demonstrated in the capital city center, longing for freedom of speech and calling upon the Place of Democracy to be reopened, and were entitled to tear gas and rubber bullets as an answer from the HAT’s police forces. While heavily armed masked soldiers were holding the front line, their general Richard Ravalomanana got its legal parade ready, namely the legal defense of a private property, that of Antananarivo’s Urban Commune. [See]

09/05/2012 | 22:33:47
Each and every decision stemming from the ruling power concerning the crisis caused by the teachers' strike was unilateral. The national education minister’s big stick policy fell through, now is the prime minister taking charge with a better proposal to MGA 25 billion and a fewer threats. Will teachers resign themselves with 11% of their claims and stop the strike? [See]

01/05/2012 | 22:21:10
After being dealt with by the HAT’s police forces with tear gas, Mamy Rakotoarivelo is now the Rajoelina regime’s next political target. The President of the transitional congress is being summoned by the ordinary criminal court, as a matter of fact a flagrant violation of the roadmap. The victim denounced the resumption of the unilateralism policy and announced that the Ravalomanana political sphere is to keep away from whatever parliamentary and governmental meetings. [See]

29/04/2012 | 09:58:13
The Ravalomanana political sphere’s transitional parliamentarians and ministers were not able to access the "place of democracy" in Ambohijatovo. The HAT’s police forces did what it takes to disperse the sphere’s supporters basically expecting to listen to the officials’ report about the current political situation concerning the implementation of the roadmap. Political repression is, just as usual, being conducted and legally covered by law enforcement charges, since opposition’s demonstration in this "prohibited place" is not and would anyway never be authorized. [See]

14/04/2012 | 19:28:23
Will the almost unanimous vote of the Amnesty Law for the sake of National Reconciliation be reconciling the Malagasy? The year 2009’s putsch makers’ virtual majority in both parliamentarian chambers actually fixed the debate from scratch. The challenge remains the same: Andry Rajoelina must not have to confront Marc Ravalomanana in the presidential race. The amnesty law in its current shape happens to be thoroughly contradicting the roadmap’s mind. Its purpose is to rule the odd ones out [See]

13/04/2012 | 22:18:18
The amnesty draft expected to bring national reconciliation back has been passed by both chambers of the transitional parliament dominated by Rajoelina’s sphere. The result is not surprising considering that not a single parliamentarian has ever been elected. The TGV made law happens to be putting the odd ones out without having to extensively name them. The Ravalomanana sphere expressed its opposition and withdrew from the "absurd" vote, taking away by so doing the precious inclusiveness. [See]

05/04/2012 | 21:52:22
Now that the time has come for the police forces to assess how good they have been preserving security and social peace in Antananarivo, the macabre murder which recently took place at General Claude Ramananarivo’s home ruined any potentially good balance sheet. Do the armed forces have to face up to their demons again? The crime does bear so many similarities with a plot. The former state police’s commander actually completed his duty regarding political events into which the army was largely involved. [See]

27/03/2012 | 22:46:16
The amnesty law definitely happens to be the key to the Malagasy crisis created by putsch in 2009. The related political negotiations had moreover quite a poor start. The ultimate goal remains the presidential election; President Marc Ravalomanana and national reconciliation. In order to settle the issue, the SADC certainly produced a memorandum which is however being interpreted the other way. [See]


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