Elections are not likely to happen in 2012

Andry Rajoelina wants hurried elections in order to relieve his undisputed rule, and do away with the opposition deemed to boycott them. Will he get them or not? The transitional electoral commission provided the answer which sounds like: most likely. Beatrice Atallah, the commission’s president declared that elections would come true by the first week of November 2012, could preparations be tackled no later than right now.

The HAT is theoretically still able to complete the election’s couple of stages in November. Legislative elections at communal level are the most realistic expectations. It would take much longer to issue any presidential election’s first stage result. The potential second stage would be in for being proclaimed in December. The electoral code forbids however the organization of any election during the rainy season. No election can legally be accepted if they take place between December and March.

The president of the CENIT declared thus that an electoral calendar would anyway be ready by the end of this year’s August. Then, three months will have to go by, in accordance with the electoral code, prior to opening the official electoral showdown. The CENIT’s challenge is mathematically a done deal, but reality has repeatedly been proving much different from theory, hasn’t it? Her speech happens to be more politically than practically significant as a matter of fact.

Mrs. Atallah declared: “during the six months long preparations, the electoral register will have to be thoroughly revised”. The electoral commission is for the time being technically unable to complete this mission the way it is supposed to be. The transitional power is bound to put Ar 9 billions on the table for the elections. An additional census is in these conditions absolutely off the point. The latest electoral register’s version used, or misused by Andry Rajoelina’s personal referendum will have to be slightly altered, all for most updated.

Can the CENIT possibly run without money? The so named national unity prime minister argued that technicians, namely the civilian administrators, the Interior Ministry’s agents and the Fokontanies’ presidents would be bound to support the electoral commission’s action. The CENIT will be working a register out, which it did not personally draft, and consequently not be able to check each and every irregularity out.

Beatrice Atallah and her staff are more inclined to expect Madagascar’s foreign support providers to pledge support to the CENIT’s action in order to keep up with its much optimistic program. These very foreign support providers do however remain very skeptical in face of the daily evolution of the political situation in Madagascar. The president of the CENIT consequently pressures the political spheres to come to any possible common ground prior to the announcement of any electoral calendar. They will have to do so before the end of August. Any politically unilateral election will never ever be widely accepted. Besides, various codes concerning the organization of various forms of elections are still to be drafted and passed by the transitional parliament.

“Even though we are supposed to issue an electoral deadline, we will not do so!” emphasized the president of the CENI. Technical, financial and first of all political factors must be fulfilled prior to this stage. Considering theses hurdles, even the announcement of any electoral calendar by the end of August happens to be everything but a certainty.