SADC – Maputo Summit: neither solution nor decision for Madagascar

The settlement of this Malagasy crisis will definitely not be triggered by the latest summit held in Maputo. The next steps will be up to incoming negotiations between Madagascan political groups. Mediators consequently called upon “intensifying talks between major political parties.”

The SADC seems to expect the outcome of those talks to make the next steps in the completion of the implementation of the roadmap clear for the sake of creating the best possible conditions for free, fair and democratic elections.” So who will have the balls to take charge? The SADC does not look so much bound to do so in spite of its mediation’s efforts to pave the way for a political settlement.

The SADC’s summit proved very much satisfying to Andry Rajoelina, the transitional leader. His allies quickly held the Troika’s invitation as an evidence of recognition. “The SADC does respect Madagascar’s sovereignty and institutions” said the president of the HAT. He recalled as well that the summit held in Maputo agreed the electoral calendar produced by the CENIT, and kept on sticking to the implementation of the roadmap.

Rajoelina unwilling to face Ravalomanana into free and fair elections

Factors thwarting the crisis settlement process in Madagascar have been clearly identified. Andry Rajoelina does not want President Marc Ravalomanana, currently held in exile in South Africa, to be allowed back home, let alone to have to challenge him in a free and fair presidential race. Following the year 2009’s putsch, the transitional leader altered the constitution for the sake of being allowed to run presidential elections. The referendum held to this end was a unilateral slipshod work which failed from gaining any recognition at all.

Andry Rajoelina conceded that the latest SADC’s summit shortly assessed the option of ruling him as well as Marc Ravalomanana out of from the presidential race deemed to be held in May 2013. “The decision is not theirs but mine” so did he boastfully reply. As per usual, the HAT’s leader immediately added a schizophrenic touch up by contradicting his own say: “could Marc Ravalomanana accept not to disrupt the country and to return home only after the elections, I would potentially stay away from elections.”

“Such a proposal is however completely off the point since Marc Ravalomanana did not accept. He wants to recover home soil and run the elections.” At least one single common ground between both figures, is it? Andry Rajoelina however hints that such a stand from the elected president brought down by his putsch casted in 2009 would compel him to run the elections as well.

The HAT and “the Rajoelina army” leaders are as a matter of fact far less well off than they seem to be. They will have to consider and cope with Marc Ravalomanana’s comeback, whether they like it or not. “Cooperation between the troika, the police forces and the ruling power in the determination of the needed conditions will prove necessary for the sake of avoiding bloodshed” said Andry Rajoelina. Would the violation of the roadmap’s Article 20 be officially accepted? “Making a decision will take a 30 to 60 days long assessment of the situation.” All the better for an Andry Rajoelina longing for keeping Marc Ravalomanana out of the country as long as possible so that he cannot stand as candidate. His electoral law was after all especially drafted to serve this purpose, wasn’t it?