The CENIT turns out all foremost a draft of the electoral calendar

The transitional electoral commission reclaimed some of its independence by complying with the United Nations’ experts’ recommendation, and not with the urging calls vociferated by the HAT and its non elected party. Elections will take place in 2013, the presidential election’s first round on May, 8th, according to the electoral calendar, its eventual second round on July 3rd, together with legislative elections. Still approximately one year to go before any potential recovery of political order in Madagascar. Still a one year long reprieve granted to usurpers.

At the local level, communal elections are expected to take place on October, 23rd 2013. Pure speculation, isn’t it? Could the new ruling power be in for them, they would eventually come true in 2014. So read the electoral timeline’s most uncertain assessment.

The CENIT does not intend to provide any second round, be it for legislative or for communal elections, and even leaves decision about them to the next ruling power. For the time being, such a privilege was used only once: the electoral law openly directed against president Ravalomanana was voted unilaterally by the Rajoelina political sphere.

The publication of such a calendar does however not pledge any election at all, as expressly outlined by Beatrice Attalah, the president of the CENIT: “elections are strongly depending on the incoming electoral laws, on the available finances from the government and on the international community”. Foreign financial supporters are expected to address the issue before long.

According to the United Nation’s spokeswoman: “this calendar is in no way supposed to be held as a binding contract from the United Nations of from international partners”. Fatma Samoura welcomed the transitional electoral commission’s “realism”. Omer Beriziky equally congratulated the commission. He welcomed this historical first step towards the settlement of the political crisis and called upon politicians to take their responsibilities.

So, what about the international community’s stand? Beatrice Attalah, the president of the CENIT created the stir when calling the international community out of the blue upon lifting international sanctions. Mourad Taiati, the African Union’s spokesman responded however by tempering the general mood: “reaching a settlement to the crisis remains our priority. Lifting sanctions right away is off the point”.

Gert Grobler, South Africa’s ambassador in Madagascar, outlined that “the SADC and the international community is doing what it takes to create the best possible electoral context for Madagascar”. The South African minister Marius Fransman is by the way expected to assess the CENIT’s electoral calendar in Antananarivo within the next few days prior to presenting it to the SADC during its incoming meeting on August 17th. So, Marc Ravalomanana and Andry Rajoelina must reach an agreement before their next meeting