A short term but controlled transition, Andry Rajoelina’s new challenge

On a Friday evening in prime time, three journalists, five TV channels, and many more radio stations, Andry Rajoelina polarized the whole country for an evening show. It is in no way a political statement to bookmark any HAT’s strategy change. In short, Andry Rajoelina wants a shortened and one-sidedly controlled transition. 

The young 35 years old man bends but doesn’t break under the pressure from the international community. Andry Rajoelina accepts to organize an election as early as possible, which means before the end of 2009, three months after the United States’ Ambassador suggested it. We will show that we don’t intent to linger in power, he said. He doesn’t concede much however because he stands by the popular poles to confirm to the one who took the power on March 17th as head of state. 

The HAT’s president can move forward behind this popular will that he claims. Therefore, he stands by the impacts of the national assemblies and indeed by those of the incoming national conference to remove the hurdles from his way. The constitutional changes will be the key of political transition and that of the return to constitutional order. They will determine who can contest or not in the presidential election. 

Andry Rajoelina made his position crystal clear about the negotiations. He doesn’t stand against discussions but he doesn’t feel compelled to comply with their outcome either. The chief of the HAT only stands by the national conference which will essentially regroup his supporters, considering the participants in the regional assemblies. 

The amnesty question will be treated then. Only a law project will be laid about it. Andry Rajoelina turned down either the duty or the power to sign an amnesty. He’d rather leave this to the future parliament whose deputies will be elected shortly before the president. A selective and lately adopted amnesty would quite well suit Andry Rajoelina in the race to the presidency. 

The young man tries to avoid talks about his involvement. He nevertheless appears like a young, dynamic person who wants to take his responsibilities towards the nation. Andry Rajoelina seems to content himself with a short-term recognition from the international community. He recalled the example of the 2002 crisis in which it took two years to the Ravalomanana regime to be restored in the circle of the nations. 

In the name of national sovereignty, the chief of the authority of transition threatened to turn away from the usual technical and financial partners. Andry Rajoelina confirmed his ability to find other backers. He was referring to less demanding investors on the question of the democracy, in particular the rich Arabian countries. Emboldened by such support from Middle East, he challenged the EU, the AU, the SADC and pushed a breakthrough to a one-sided solution from a thoroughly controlled electoral process.