Candidacy, election, Special Electoral Court : The ICG-M’s solutions

This time around, no space will be left for loopholes of any kind. The political situtation is definitely on a standstill. No presidential election deadline will be published as long as the political canvas does not match the ICG-M’s requirements. Fair way to flex muscles for Joachim Chissano and Ramtane Lamamra, respectively SADC organization’s  and African Union’s Peace and Security Council’s envoys, is it not? Three candidates, that is to say Andry Rajoelina, Didier Ratsiraka and Lalao Ravalomanana are being ordered to withdraw their candidacies held by the International Contact Group as vilotating the “Malagasy laws”. Legal terms are actually a mere cover up. This requirement happens to be first and foremost politically motivated, namely in order to comply with the “neither… nor” settlement direction agreed into the Roadmap

15 days to comply, countdown on

Why did Chissano & Co. actually pushed for an ultimatum at all? or why on earth diplomatically granting 15 days to the three candidates rejected by the International Contact Group – Madagascar?  As a recall, the GIC-M is basically not entitled to put any decision through. The concerned candidates will have to withdraw willingly, albeit merely for the sake of evading individually targeted sanctions. 15 days are also expected to allow a cabinet meeting to compose some legal articles paving the way out of the presidential race to the concerned candidates.

Rajoelina’s « yes, if ever… » stand

Didier Ratsiraka remains convinced of the legality of his candidacy and does not intend to pull out from the race at all. Lalao Ravalomanana does not appear remotely interested into giving in, since not even the Special Electoral Court found any moral or legal reason to deny her entry. The next developments are actually now for the transitional leader to decide. Andry Rajoelina, equally rejected by the International Community for having broken his word, declared to the international mediation team that he would be bound to consider his own withdrawal if and only if the other rejected candidates do the same.

The SEC prompted to change its point

The Special Electoral Court also has its own demons to deal with. The ICG-M wants to prompt this institution subordinated to the High Constitutional Court to engage the rear gear and accept the three targeted candidates’ withdrawal. To this end, the ICG-M relies on the transitional presidency’s persuasion potential. Still, this temporary court will have to change its decions willingly, or eventually resist pressure. Actually nothing forces compells it do so, even if it is legal, or made legal. But may the Special Electoral Court address the three rejected candidates’ case after being reshuffled ? so sounds the major issue, bearing in mind that any potential reshuffle would take an awful lot of time, or get swiftly and poorly completed.

clock race for the sake of any election in 2013

In the end, the ICG-M may put ultimatum or decisions through, the next political developments remain fully up to the three major presidential candidates as well as to aSpecial Electoral Court which has lost much of its credit Time has become a major parameter too, since the Electoral Commission cannot and will not make any more step forward into issuing any other electoral program before this situation gets settled. The 38 other presidential candidates will have to wait before having their starting line officially published, and wait at least until the end of September, for the presidential race’s knock out round cannot take place before the end of September. Any second round would develop by November, during the rainy season. IAnother legal text will be required in order to turn any electoral tournament held during the rainy season legal, by the way.