Logical though expected: the fiercely disputed presidential majority is fractured. The Ravalomanana political sphere formally put up with the ruling power and broke apart from the PMP for good. To make matters worse than they already are, the rogue political sphere fully assumes its new status of Opposition party towards the Rajaonarimampianina ruling power. The stroke may not yet be fatal to the HVM and its parliamentarian supporters recruited after election among independent deputies and low relevance parties, but they may wave goodbye to their lost stability. The ruling power is likely to have to pay dearly for the mere sake of keeping its independent parliamentarian mercenaries in its ranks. Will the Prime Minister’s led “talk to the Members of the Parliament” still prove enough to avert the government’s downfall? Though not in position to take advantage from the HVM’s misfortune, the MAPAR parliamentarian group hails the setback.
The fractured majority
The party headed by the State Minister Rivo Rakotovao did vex its potential allies by pulling out of from an eventual on October 14th. The HVM party might not have elected figures in the National Assembly, at least it has its men at the helms of the executive departments. Although delaying the municipal elections in order to establish an electoral basis at all throughout the country, the HVM now has its power challenged on its own background. Most of the acting mayors were actually elected under the color of Marc Ravalomanana’s TIM party. Guess how invigorated their morale might be, now that their leader is back home, unscathed.
In any case, the ruling power will struggle its current configuration standing tall up to the year 2018 with loose and unnatural alliances The National Unity government works well on the surface, produces however but sluggish performance contributing to make the promises made by the President of the Republic sound howl to the people’s ears. The Rajaonarimampianina ruling power keeps probing the ground back and forth, unable to find suitable solutions, and contents with explaining the issues to the Malagasy, while failing to settle them. The foreign allies’ confidence in the ruling power does not happen to be as large as it basically expected. They prefer putting money into their own support projects rather than leaving control to the local government.
The Ravalomanana sphere turns into a problem
How soon before Roger Kolo yields and steps down as head of the government? The Prime Minister stands at the receiving end of criticisms blaming his melting pot staff’s slow performance. His ministers are brought into line behind the President of the Republic under the national unity motto. Every declaration to the press must be associated to ministry’s allegiance to State’s general policy in accordance with the vision of the Head of State. The presence of former presidential candidates, or their representatives, and the degree of involvement of the Marc Ravalomanana, if ever, will be at the heart of the reshuffle. Roland Ravatomanga had obtained approval from the political sphere leader and former president to keep in charge because of the importance of his position. Things might develop differently though, now that his political sphere switch to the Opposition. Scavengers have the floor and advertise for themselves. Just as Jean Eugène Voninahitsy does, they all swear that they would support the ruling power, hypothetically called “the People’s choice”.
Marc Ravalomanana’s remarks on the ruling power’s weakness were harsh, but actually do reflect the political reality of the moment. The former president dubbed the ruling power as “illegitimate”, the new face of the previous Transition, which just like its predecessor, struggles to consolidate its authority and have control over the territory, over the population and over the finances. The Hery Vaovaon’i Madagasikara paraded what is left of its strength by sending state police’s elite forces to “capture” the former president, arguably in order to protect his integrity from some alleged assassination plot. Prime Minister Kolo played the temperance card by visiting the Ravalomanana family, which he met in a home still bearing the tracks of the state policemen’s deeds. He declared that the former president was safe and taken good care of. Later on, Lalao Ravalomanana said different.