GIC – Resolution of the crisis: an ultimatum against Andry Rajoelina?

The IGC’s warning against the de facto Transition is crystal clear. “Any one-sided gait aiming to legitimize the unconstitutional change in Madagascar” is reprehensible and unacceptable. The AU has a new tone and firmly opposes the HAT’s strategy to impose the de facto situation to everyone. Besides, Andry Rajoelina himself described his regime as a “de facto transition “. 

Ultimatums so far used to be given by Andry Rajoelina. Ablassé Ouedraogo, IGC mediator, is breaking the rule. The HAT has until September 16th to restore constitutional order. The AU insists on the inclusive dialogue between the four political mobilities to find a way out of from the Madagascan crisis. The meeting “on top” foreseen in Addis Abeba hasn’t been vain, in spite of the boycott from the Rajoelina and Zafy mobilities. 

In latest March, Jean Ping, the African Union Commission’s president, gave six months in Madagascar to restore constitutional order as the Great Isle has been suspended. The ultimatum announced by Ablassé Ouedraogo is therefore not really new. If the HAT resists and decides to let the Union’s warnings go down like a lead balloon, heavier sanctions will be taken. 

The African Union’s firmness, challenged by the HAT as it challenged the EU, is a considerable progress. It’s become one more hurdle for the TGV roadmap to change the constitution in favour of Andry Rajoelina, and to remove other adversaries from their unilateral presidential poles. 

The ICG is questioning the pro-TGV national conference planned by the HAT mobility for  August. This meeting aims to give legitimacy to the Rajoelina regime, to what it’s been doing so far, and to whatever it will do, for example, the organization of a constitutional referendum, legislative and presidential elections. 

This national conference is an alternative for the TGV and its allies to a difficult negotiation with the other mobilities. The HAT tried to make believe that the regional conferences have been inclusive because there were two or three major barons from the Ravalomanana regime among the participants. The ICG didn’t buy it as so easily and keeps on asking for an inclusive and consensual transition charter through negotiation.