Marc Ravalomanana’s refrain to stand, the first acquired the SADC

It was almost a second to none surprise to many observers, supporters and ordinary citizens when the SADC’s official statement and the press made public that the exiled president Marc Ravalomanana has so easily and quickly accepted to do away with his intentions to stand as candidate in the run of the year 2013’s presidential election. The breaking scoop has not yet personally been confirmed either on the spot or on his 63rd birthday, as expected by his supporters. Inside the Magro, in which the Ravalomanana sphere’s supporters have long been entrenching, there were still hopes for a late denial, or at least for a decent explanation.

Guy Rivo Randrianarisoa, President Ravalomanana’s spokesman declare barely enough to cheer the greatly disappointed supporters up. “Marc Ravalomanana said that he would not stand as a candidate in the presidential election if his candidacy ever happens to be a hurdle to appeasement…” Whether this decision can no more be altered or not is not yet clearly established either. “We are seeing to it that appeasement conditions are gathered so that our leader is allowed to run the elections,” he added.

A step back which does cause doubts

Without questioning the Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete’s aura and persuasion capacities, Marc Ravalomanana’s incentives and objectives remain a thick mystery to everyone. Inside the Magro square, the fiery activist Constant Raveloson has made no secret of the political dimension of the sphere leader’s latest decision. “This is actually a political choice, even though it seems like a must enforced imposed by the SADC. Those who hold “neither.., no” – that is to say “neither Ravalomanana nor Rajoelina at the elections” – as a way to cast the President Ravalomanana aside, are having it all wrong” he said. For the time being, having the sphere leader back on home soil remains the top priority.

The Rajoelina sphere as a whole, prudence and fears do silence any cheers of victory. “We suspect a likely turning back” does circulate together with Marc Ravalomanana’s failure to comply with the agreements signed in Dakar back in 2002, actually a minor incident compared to Andry Rajoelina’s repeated violations of the Maputo Deals and the SADC’s Roadmap. The Rajoelina sphere’s tactical response: playing the political impact of what is widely recognized as a sacrifice for the sake of the superior interests of the nation down, namely as the resignation of a candidate supposedly standing no chance to win for being excluded by the electoral law. This certain law unilaterally passed by the transitional parliament actually requires every candidate to physically be on home soil six months before the election.

As for the Ravalomanana sphere, even the TIM party “dissidents”, now serving as transitional congressmen, do not pledge support to the “neither…nor” electoral framework, and rather want a confrontation Ravalomanana vs. Rajoelina during the elections. Questions, loads, are being raised by the effect of the former president’s pending come back home without his presidential candidacy.

Deputy Prime Minister Pierrot Botozaza is more pragmatic in acknowledging Marc Ravalomanana’s latest wise decision filled with patriotism. The assessment is officially shared by the national unity Prime Minister Omer Beriziky, who, besides, expects Andry Rajoelina to emulate, and wave goodbye to his immediate presidential ambitions.