The National Conference at the heart of Rajoelina’s plans

The concern of avoiding the supposedly decisive meeting to be labeled as unilateral again is making a joint erection of a national unity government a paramount issue. For lack of a genuine common ground between  the real actors in this crisis which has been undermining the country since 2009, the National Conference will be the starting point for the erection of “new Republic’s opened joint vision” by…who knows who from various political groups. As were several of the dictating authorities’ previous meetings of such a kind, the National Conference will be addressing the new Constitution during 5 days from August 20th 2010. 87 political parties, including some defectors from the opposition’s front, complied with Andry Rajoelina’s wish to do things his way. As a matter of fact, even the electoral settings, let alone the institutions would still be on the table during this allegedly national meeting.

The Constitutional Advisory Council is still failing from presenting any constitutional draft for the referendum meant to take place on November 17th 2010. Polling dates logically ought to have been decided once the 4th Republic is legally established. But neither the Rajoelina sphere nor its allies do have it this way, most likely in order to avoid a renewed transition which would almost certainly ruin the current Duce’s will to leave a positive footprint behind. In the end, the Conference will no more address the crisis’ settlement since the alleged political deal has emerged earlier.

Controversial amnesty

87 out of the country’s 200 political parties will have to address far less relevant issues during the National Conference. The political deal preferred to assign the refereeing role to the Conference to be gathering political parties, the civil society, traditional chiefs, churches, and certainly the armed forces. It is all about the release of political prisoners, the lift of bans on media groups, and indeed the amnesty. The national conference would, however, not have any power to make decisions, since its resolutions would still have to be approved from above. On the other hand, it promises to address issues related to deputies, competition rules, communication rules of engagement, or to the electoral code.

The Transitional Congress, most likely to be controlled by Andry Rajoelina, would be entitled to decide about the amnesty issue. The Maputo originated seat assignment granted majority to the opposition’s three spheres led by the Ravalomanana sphere, party of which used to be entitled to a large majority within the latest legal parliament shut by the dictating power. Andry Rajoelina previously warned that this political deal was everything but a paved way for amnesty. National Reconciliation would finally come true without the sides to reconcile. The HAT strategy is the isolation of the opposition through a deal with legions of small political guns which never achieved a thing on the presidential scale