Troika: an empty report to be delivered to the SADC’s next summit, will it be so?

The SADC apparently seems willing to reconfirm the beverage leadership’s point which did actually not change that much either. Marius Fransman, the South African Vice-Minister and mediator in chief, addressed the Rajoelina supportive army’s top command which caused in 2009 the unconstitutional government change and its consequences. The army’s upper class happens to be the Rajoelina sphere’s hardest core. This was the two party talks’ real conclusion. So what are their respective stands?

More than three years after the putsch directed against him, Marc Ravalomanana longs for recovering home soil, just as pledged by the Roadmap’s article 20, and run the presidential elections. This would be the apocalypse for Andry Rajoelina and his clique. The HAT’s leader will resort to every possible trick to oppose and delay the return of the last democratically elected chief of state, namely by making use of the famous article 45. The army’s top command appears far less enthusiastic than the HAT about such a comeback, and do wave threats with heavier artillery than that of the HAT.

The Troika noticed that both of them would rather want Marc Ravalomanana’s comeback as former president to come true in due times. And who will decide of when and how? Rajoelina’s speeches would suggest that such a time of calm political horizons would never come. Let alone his way to rule a country.

The SADC has failed to bring a Ravalomanana sphere on the rise and a Rajoelina one on its way down back to the reconciliation path. Addressing the issue with other factors proves necessary. The other signatories of the roadmap wanted besides to be told about any alteration of the so named document.

At least one common ground has emerged from Marius Fransman’s talks with the concerned parties, namely the fact that the Roadmap remains the single crisis settlement pattern. Next issue: will Rajoelina accept to challenge Ravalomanana into elections? Or will they both have to be kept away from them, whether they like it or not?

Death does in the end not threaten the Roadmap’s survival. Merely its content happens to be problematic for some of those who did sign it anyway. These ones actually held international legitimacy merely through a signature for granted, while remaining in full control of all of the transition’s main institutions like the national assembly led by a powerless opposition member as a matter of cover up.

Besides, having to wait during a handful of hours before meeting the SADC’s envoy proved enough to infuriate UDR-TGV transitional parliamentarians mumbling against this lack of respect for their eluding international legitimacy.

The Zafy political sphere appears less tense than the HAT, and notices the SADC’s struggle to settle the Malagasy crisis. The former president’s sphere has been pushing for the renewal of talks and for a comeback to basics, namely to the Malagasy society’s traditional basis: the Fihavanana. Two Madagascans have been repeatedly failing from finding any agreement during three years. How would the other twenty millions ever do it?

Even the Civil Society is being dented by more or less supportive one or another sphere’s stand. The FFKM, the local federation of Christian churches has not yet tipped the scales, but has however not yet forgiven the aggression against those of its own back in 2009. So, in the end, foreigners are deemed to get a move on and decide into national matters. So be it. The HAT increasingly struggles to bear the SADC, and calls the French devoted OIF and the COI for help