Wednesday , 1 May 2024
enfrit
The SADC might well have summoned the Malagasy political leaders, namely the HAT and other movements, to join Pretoria, but lies concerning the meeting´s outcome are widespread. Interpretations are once more as usual strongly contradicting, and cannot return any reliable explanation of the truth. So, only one thing is so far to be held for granted. HAT realized a couple of things: it will from now on find it hard to impose unilateral decisions, no matter what its army means about it, and even harder, if not yet impossible, to oppose Marc Ravalomanana´s return home. Rajoelina and his movement have an option left: saving time by controlling a selective amnesty.

a roadmap meant to implemented up to issuing amnesty bill, before February 29, is it???

The HAT had to be compelled to openly breach the rules in order to spur the political situation on. Of course, the ruling power denies any blame in response to its disastrous management of exiled president Marc Ravalomanana´s homecoming on January 21st.
However, for the first time ever it could not deny the need of a consensual and inclusive transition. Rajoelina will no longer deliberately be able to violate the roadmap and will have to consult the Prime Minister. As a proof of this restriction to his absolute power granted by a putsch in 2009, the HAT´s leader promised to refrain from banning Marc Ravalomanana from coming home again.

The case Ivato might have boosted the government´s chief´s position, considering that the Rajoelina supportive army top command will no more be able to look down on it. For advocating appeasement, Omer Beriziky did not oppose Marc Ravalomanana´s comeback at all. However, he outlined the need of concerted talks between the concerned parties in order to capitalize this comeback in order. “We must commit to the overall implementation of the road map and not to that of few articles” he declared. Precisely, the implementation of this document, which brings the TGV constitution down, is being hindered by the reluctance to implement its article 20.
The unconditional return is finally accepted. The HAT strikes back as Norbert Ratsirahonana its mastermind, declared: “There are still charges against Marc Ravalomanana.” The previous explanation of the roadmap is being held by the year 2009´s putsch maker as the weapon deemed to prevent the ousted president from recovering home soil, let alone recover any political role.
The Ravalomanana sphere relies to the articles calling upon the suspension of politically motivated charges, for the former president was condemned in a political trial and a court deprived of legitimacy.

The amnesty bill is the main stake. Marius Fransman created a stir in Madagascar when making a deadline out of February 29th: the amnesty bill will have to be bound to allow the exiled president Marc Ravalomanana´s return home by then.
Both of these two major facts are part of the conditions to the organization of a free election. SADC seems willing to have the Malagasy people decide in the poles and put an end to the fight Ravalomanana vs. Rajoelina.

Rajoelina declared thereafter, out of prudence, that he would never grant amnesty to Marc Ravalomanana. For having led a putsch in 2009, he actually needs this amnesty at least as much as his opponent, unless being certain of winning elections which won´t be accepted without his opponent´s unrestrained participation.
His justice minister tries to skirt around the issue behind an argued long process draw up and have the bill passed. She´d deliberately slacken the pace as a matter of fact: at least three months would arguably be required to this end.
Christine Razanamahasoa actually openly opposes her superior, Prime Minister Beriziky, when doing what she can to thwart his led implementation of the roadmap.

The Ravalomanana sphere immediately rejected the artless excuse. “Yes we can, could each and everyone truly commit to it!” claimed Rakotoarivelo Mamy. He subsequently declared that the HAT is known for speeding processes up whenever it needs to, just as it did concerning its electoral commission. After the meeting with the SADC´s troika, the Ravalomanana decided to resume its participation into the transition. The amnesty related issue will be the key deemed to permanently lock it down or pave the way to a brand new one.