Addis Ababa: What about a solution beyond Maputo

In Addis Ababa, talks are still failing to overcome the stumbling block of Maputo II. The assignment of transitional executive key roles is definitely a cause for division for mobilities. Andry Rajoelina keeps pushing the scrum in order to capitalize the advantage whistled on latest October 06th, and holds on to his transitional presidential seat. Marc Ravalomanana and Didier Ratsiraka are fiercely challenging his power gained as a result of a “Coup”. Next to the TSAR or Transition without Andry Rajoelina, the TGV can avoid to remain the black sheep of the “ruling” family, could he agree to share power with the rest of the “family”. 

This perspective is obviously not included within the Maputo charter. The diagrams proposed by both former presidents are planning a replication of executive seats. HEre comes a three headed joint presidency, then a four headed one since president Zafy is also called to participate, a joint leadership with the Rajoelina and Ravalomanana mobilities, with both figures on board or not, and a Ravalomanana mobility representative as one of both vice presidents … options are endless. This flow of propositions finally outraged Andry Rajoelina who left the room a little later. Even the Zafy mobility also appeared angry. 

Can the Maputo charter really be altered? As the 30 days long deadline from the signature’s date, namely August 09th, 2009, is over, the charter is not more untouchable. No institution planned by this transitional, inclusive and national unity “constitution” has been erected. The HAT is still there. Andry Rajoelina’s equivocation to drop the Prime minister who took hold of power back in latest March has definitely weakened Maputo I. The very late ratification as well as the appointment of Prime minister Eugene Mangalaza restored a shadow of relevance for the charter.  

The alteration of the Maputo Charter is, as for now on, possible and likely. The “amendment” might not go down as so easily though, since the procedure is likely to be complicated. The ratification completed by a de facto and non recognized government remains a problem. The most important is to preserve the consensual and inclusive transition’s mindset. The Andry Rajoelina mobility, namely the Forces for Change, have always been denouncing the Maputo Charter. The military command devoted to the TGV repeatedly challeged the military council whose members would be designated by the four mobilities again. 

The preservation of the Maputo Charter in its current shape is no more an absolute priority since this fundamental text failed to come into force. The continuous black out from the High Constitutional Court, the last remaining democratic institution, does not help much. Did Monja Roindefo finally have it right to hold on to his seat? The Maputo Charter justifying his dismissal is on the brink of falling apart. After his defiance against Andry Rajoelina, the extra Maputo pattern could penalize him anyway to Manorohanta Cécile’s advantage. The “fake” Prime minister of openness is more and more booked to direct a government supposedly recognized by a part of the international community. A failure of the Addis Ababa stage is already considered.