Implementation of the roadmap: the unsteady calendar

The implementation of the roadmap and the settlement of the crisis are slowly going their way forward. The SADC´s Troika is leaving 15 days to the Malagasy negotiating parties to decide and agree on a national unity prime minister´s name. He himself will be granted 17 days from November 01st on to erect his cabinet.

The new transitional parliament is, in the meantime, expected to be operational. The Troika is therefore expecting the completion of the implementation process to come true before November 30th 2011. The most relevant deadline certainly remains the elections, to be held before the end of 2012, but not before the reshuffle of the electoral commission, so far unilaterally controlled by the HAT.

The TGV-G7 trick

They are no more seven, they are no more eight, and they are now pretending to be merely two. “They” is the heap of parties born from the single Rajoelina sphere. For the sake of keeping its grip on the government´s leadership, the TGV-UDR hard core is doing away with its allies, so that these ones are allowed to claim the prime minister´s position for themselves. The move is as a matter of fact no new one in politics. The roadmap is actually requiring the prime minister to be stemming from whatever political sphere but that of the transitional president´s one.

“The TGV will refrain from claiming the prime minister´s position so that we may propose our own candidate” argued the TGV´s national president, Lanto Rakotomavo. Ramasy Adolphe, a renegade of the Arema party and now a convinced Rajoelina supporter stood up for the trick: “The TGV and the UDR are actually not the single ones representing the Rajoelina sphere”. The imposed ruling power´s allies are thereupon expecting to present a candidate actually fully devoted to the father party: “the prime minister must be someone able to cooperate with the HAT´s president” emphasized Lanto Rakotomavo.

A national unity prime minister stemming from the 3 spheres

The Ravalomanana sphere is in expectation of the troika´s series of explanations, but claims the prime minister´s position for the opposition´s three spheres challenging the authoritarian regime. The situation is however no more exactly the same as before: “Only the Zafy, Ravalomanana spheres, and to a certain extent the Monima party no more allied to the Rajoelina sphere, are allowed to present candidates”. The Ravalomanana delegation remains confident in spite of the Rajoelina sphere´s trick: “the troika is going to closely monitor the designation processes for the prime minister, the government ministers and parliamentarians”.

The implementation of the roadmap is deemed to be a difficult chapter for complete lack of common ground. Marius Fransman´s thought up calendar would not be the first one to fall through in this crisis. “There is no such thing like a perfect plan, but political will is the pledge for progress”, tempered Emmanuel Rakotovahiny from the Zafy sphere. For lack of political to reconcile, refereeing is likely to have the last say