Sunday , 19 May 2024
enfrit
The SADC might have delivered its last recommendations as well as a final version of the Malagasy roadmap, but the mediation of the crisis is far from being a complete success. The mediator Leonardo Simao came to Madagascar first and foremost in order to explain the amended draft, the current roadmap which happens to be a cause for many possible interpretations. The SADC actually held the Malagasy political mentality´s irrational character.

Leonardo Simao: the roadmap just as confusing as before

In the end, the SADC brought merely one amendment to the Simao draft, when addressing the sensible issue of Marc Ravalomanana´s return from his forced political exile as well as that of all the others in his situation. It is somehow a second amendment since the resolution of Sandton recommended such an unconditional return without precising that all political actors would be allowed to take part into a democratic transitional process up to the elections. In the end, the SADC recovered its basic position when making security and lull its top priority conditions  
Everything is not clear for so much. The SADC´s mediator joined Madagascar in order to explain the roadmap to the Malagasy political actors. His first attempts are not forcibly successful The document must still be signed, namely by the three other spheres that boycotted its first version. And yet, Leonardo Simao recognized the unilateral stages completed by the imposed authority and by its allies which pushed for the first draft.  
Thereupon, the SADC´s mediator considers that the Prime minister’s change for the sake of the erection of a national unity government is no more the top priority issue. Leonardo Simao confirmed by so doing the Prime minister appointed by Andry Rajoelina as being the Rajoelina sphere´s national unity premier, and will impose it to the other spheres. The rest of the transition is on its to be ruled undisputedly. The general Camille Vital is vital for the HAT as a link to the armed forces expected to protect the regime.  
“If there´s no military on top of the government, the régime will be reversed “, had once conceded the brain of Ambohitsorohitra, Norbert Ratsirahonana. The mediating Simao believes that keeping the present Rajoelina sphere´s government supported by some defectors in its ranks to be a way to recover a shadow of stability. In the same way, the HAT´s unilateral parliament is addressing essential laws related to the crisis settlement process, namely the electoral law and the amnesty law.  
The three spheres are losing in such a pattern imposed by Leonardo Simao in the HAT´s favor, or not. The roadmap´s amendment is still a stake. Pledging the imposed authority´s unilateral acts and silencing the opposition would be boosting the recovery of political safety. 
Conditioned return to the country  
The SADC probably held the declaration of war pronounced by the army devoted to the the putsch maker it empowered in consideration, as it clearly declared its willingness to resort to weapons could Marc Ravalomanana´s return ever come true. The draft´s amendment is favoring the imposed authority and its army, in the short term. The Dr Simao is going as far as declaring that the Malagasy are free to implement the roadmap or not.  
Those pushig for the “not” are debatting about the fact that president Ravalomanana´s return would be conditioned by “the restoration of a favorable and secure political environment” just as the organization of an election is. The SADC´s amendment states however that all Malagasy, including Marc Ravalomanana should be able to take part into the political process.  
The return of all exiled figures should as a conclusion come true before elections not deemed to take place before the restoration of a suitable political climate. The SADC calles therefore the HAT ” to make use of all of its judicial instruments in order to insure political freedom and security to every Madagascan as early as possible for the sake of an inclusive transitional process up to the holding of free, fair and believable elections “. Many ones are holding this as an amnesty for every concerned politicians. The decisive victory might be decided by the elections.