Mediators’ meeting: an agreement which is not quite an agreement

“We will never accept a putsch maker on top of the country”. In those strong words has Manandafy Rakotonirina, from the MFM party, part of the Marc Ravalomanana mobility, summarized its stand, on the fringe of the international mediators’ meeting in Antananarivo about the Malagasy crisis. 

The third Contact Group’s meeting concerning Madagascar, which involved the whole international community, has lasted around 19 hours in the Carlton hotel, on October 6th. The outcome was an “agreement”, not really bought by everyone, but toughly conquered at any rate, in order to avoid the impression of failure.  

The Marc Ravalomanana mobility has been holding to the end against the principle of a Transition “presided by a putsch maker”, namely Andry Rajoelina. The exiled president’s representatives finally started to loosen their stand over this idea in the case that Andry Rajoelina is not allowed to take part into the anticipated presidential elections. The same representatives accepted the principle, though being conscious that the last word belongs in Marc Ravalomanana, free to sign or not the possible agreement. 

In its final version, the Contact Group’s statement specified: “While accepting Mr. Andry Rajoelina as president to the Transition, the Ravalomanana Mobility expressed strong objections to his future contest of the forthcoming presidential elections. The ICG has asked the Mediation’s joint team to carry on its efforts to make the bases of the consensus and those of the Transition large and inclusive.”  

In spite of all, the agreement of principle designated Eugene Mangalaza (Ratsiraka mobility) as the Transition’s Prime minister, Emmanuel Rakotovahiny (mobility Albert Zafy)as the Transition’s Vice-president and Andry Rajoelina as president.  

Andry Rajoelina has solemnly dropped his Prime minister Monja Roindefo for good, the latter being quite likely to stage a new opposition front 

In order to make “agreement” come into effect, the signatures of the four mobility leaders will be necessary. Marc Ravalomanana, Didier Ratsiraka, Albert Zafy and Andry Rajoelina should eventually meet for a short time to validate it. In this sense, the Marc Ravalomanana mobility speaks of Maputo III.  

The exiled president has always been ruling out the idea of an Andry Rajoelina president of the Transition since the failure of the second meeting in Maputo, in September. Marc Ravalomanana labelled this possibility as “recognition of a putsch” in Madagascar. But considering the international community’s position, he may come to, somehow, alter his stand. Nothing is yet taken for granted before his eventual signature.