Postponed referendum: the HAT in spite of the setback

It is no more a scoop since the announcement was predictable, if not unavoidable. The constitutional referendum meant to take place on  August 12th, 2010 by Andry Rajoelina’s unilateral roadmap is being postponed until further notice. The president of the national independent electoral Commission (CENI) made the announcement since it did receive no constitutional draft up to June 28th, 2010 at 06 hours local time. The electoral law actually wants the campaign for the referendum to last 45 days. A so long expectation for a finally failed constitutional draft proved the project and the HAT leadership’s will to be impossible.  

This postponement is a lost point for Andry Rajoelina compelled to enforce respect for the first popular consultation’s deadlines supposed to pave Madagascar’s way back to an alleged constitutional order. The HAT leader would however not be losing everything since his current dictating mandate on top of the country is likely to extend. Following the recognition that his presidential candidacy would be impossible and unsuited, the young authority leader has to do with a half mandate by extending his stay in Ambohitsorohitra instead of giving up the golden lace dedicated to a president expected to be elected at the end of the year 2010.  

The referendum’s postponement is not only caused by the drafting process’ delay. The new mediators, relatively independent from the authorities, are tackling the political crisis’ settlement at first, prior to gathering all of the political forces and spheres in order to debate the 4th republic’s future Constitution. It means that the race against the clock basically launched by Andry Rajoelina is now totally off the point. A political agreement is going to redefine a new roadmap to end of the transition. The HAT has many chances of keeping in control of power, even when having to share it, up to a short 12 months long period.  

The settlement of the crisis political is, from now on, depending on this 100% Malagasy convention since the enforcement of questionable and challenged elections would only alter the problem’s nature without settling it. The political debate is inescapable in order to choose the Constitution’s directions. The blind HAT process is not paying off. Appointing law makers in order to assess the Malagasy population’s proposals and draw a legal text from them is nothing but propaganda.  

As a result, the constitutional Advisory Committee collected 230 proposals, and was, as expected, unable to draw any legal text out of them in a record time, before June 15th, 2010, whereas the national dialog supposed to validate the eluding text was meant to take place on June 17th. After all of these setbacks, the HAT pull out strategy, from both the organization of the crisis’ settlement process and the preparation of elections is not a bad idea.