Thursday , 16 May 2024
enfrit
The roadmap deemed to lead to the settlement of the crisis is unofficially expected to be reached on Wednesday March 09th, 2011. Signatures are not yet on schedule, merely the written support from the Malagasy political life is. Leonardo Simao, the SADC´s envoy and mediator, has conducted rounds of consultations ever since the publication of the first draft. Some changes have been introduced but, assuming that no compromise is being reached, a final draft will be imposed.

Simao´s roadmap: buy it with or without compromise

Leonardo Simao stood tall the Rajoelina sphere´s pressure which summoned him to make a roadmap out of from his draft before March 08th, 2011. He would finally have waited for one day more. Appearances are safe. The dictating authority pressured the mediators to validate the draft making Andry Rajoelina an invulnerable president-king during the transition.  

 

Dr. Simao´s new draft is extending the transitional institutions of the opposition´s other spheres. The balance of power is not holding each sphere´s electoral legitimacy but the consequences of the year 2009´s putsch. The TGV is the winner with one mayor and some city council advisors dominating the national unity government and the transitional superior council. The national council of the Fihavanana would be addressing the amnesty to be applied to events having occured in 2002 and 2009, as well the compensation of victims. Some sort of solidarity fund supported by the international community is being considered.  

 

The TGV compares the transition to an aircraft with two reactors, namely the TGV republic´s constitution and the SADC´s roadmap. Could the second reactor fail from working, the aircraft would keep on flying. Despite its multiple conversion into a train, then  into a ship, the transition is not making a single shadow of progress. The roadmap´s draft is however still very advantageous for the HAT, in spite of the alterations.  

 

Andry Rajoelina has no interest in reaching March 17th, 2011 without any settlement of the crisis. Mamy Rakotoarivelo, from the Ravalomanana sphere is convinced that the end of the tunnel is close. “A new type of transition has to be put in place now that the dictating transition´s life expectancy is coming to an end”, he argued. The genuine TIM party´s secretary general estimates that the main sides involved in negotiations had to talk prior to coming to a roadmap.  

 

Fetison Andrianirina remains pragmatic in spite of a certain disappointment. He outlined that the proposed amendments have not necessarily been held in account whereas the mediator is willing to enforcing a document without the concerned parties´ consent. “We are in a transition and not in a democratic alternation, all of the concerned parties have to be in for it “, he said. In any case, Dr. Simao´s roadmap will be coming into force, that can be held for granted.