Summit of Pretoria: Andry Rajoelina threatening to pull out

Andry Rajoelina is threatening to refrain from making to Pretoria and meeting with Marc Ravalomanana. The high authority’s young dictator is requiring the rules of engagement to be made clear. He definitely wants this next move to comply with whatever is wanted by France. On this account, Andry Rajoelina refused to tackle negotiations, as giving in once again to his political allies’ pressure. Ambohitsorohitra will want France’s proposal to come true and nothing else. Making for Pretoria is baseless if Marc Ravalomanana is not ready to sign the protocol” imposed” by Paris.  

This wind of panic in Ambohitsorohitra is suddenly caused by the SADC mediator’s come back. Joaquim Chissano invited the four mobilities. “Scandalous invitation! “, roared  the Rajoelina mobility. The fear to send the young authority’s as so young leader to Pretoria is no secret. Any resumption of the Maputo Charter’s implementation is being presented as a cataclysm. The HAT keeps on sustaining that the consensual and inclusive transitional scheme wanted by the African Union is as so impossible as outdated. The three other mobilities, Ravalomanana – Ratsiraka – Zafy, are, on the other hand, dying for the implementation of those agreements, even if it comes up to altering the Addis Ababa additional act.  

The Rajoelina mobility refuses the reinstatement of a couple of former presidents, Zafy and Ratsiraka, within the crisis’ settlement process. According to the French roadmap, the national unity government would largely be made of the Rajoelina and Ravalomanana mobilities, with crumbs being left over to the other forces. The HAT is only longing for keeping his newly promoted general Camille Vital in position. The Rajoelina-Vital duet is, in such a scheme, naturally blessed by France. This plan is well underway to be challenged by the African Union’s international recognition of Eugene Mangalaza, from the Ratsiraka mobility, as single legal national unity prime minister.  

Andry Rajoelina’s allies are facing up to a Pretoria deal riddled with uncertainties for them. The fate of the HAT itself is hanging by a political agreement. The transitional superior council, the likely equivalent of an upper chamber, can no more grant cash flow for granted. A potential transitional Congress is likely to revive disputes for positions between the political mobilities. Could all of these national unity institutions be successfully set up, having international financial partners poking their nose in the management would no more be avoided.  

Andry Rajoelina carefully keeps an ultimate card up his sleeve if digging comes to shovel. The “Teny ifampierana”‘widened national unity is, by and large, supported by France’s proposal. Paris  can now try its best in order to convince the ousted president Marc Ravalomanana to comply with Malagasy roadmap. But here is the rub: pre conditions are set by Andry Rajoelina. The political blackmail is a double game in itself: Ravalomanana  gives in and complies with the “franco-Rajoelina roadmap” “, else the dictatorship keeps going forward due to the ousted presidents’ refusal.