The 4 mobilities invited to Addis Ababa: the AU keeps pressuring Andry Rajoelina

No matter how much do the HAT members despise the African Union and the SADC, both being blamed as trade unions of dictators, Madagascar will never ever be part of the European Union. Andry Rajoelina and his allies are insisting on their unilateral roadmap for having put their money on an eventual electoral transparency success supposed to convince Europe, the country’s main financial backer. The diplomatic offensive’s next target is, thereafter, meant to be United Nations. They actually did not reckon with the African Union’s fierce resistance. The next Addis Ababa meeting between the four mobility leaders will have to lead to a consensus, as well as to the resumption of the inclusive Transition’s capitalization. The Union’s Peace and Security Council (PSC) required the compulsory presence of Rajoelina, Ravalomanana, Ratsiraka and Zafy, each of them with, all for most, a delegation restricted to four persons.  

The three mobilities have already announced their boycott of the HAT meeting, so Andry Rajoelina could equally keep holding on to his position under his allies’ pressure. The young leader repeatedly argued that he had nothing against any meaningful consultation to end the crisis, provided the “meaningful consultation” comes up to the acceptation of his personal roadmap and his conditions. The HAT might have a lot to lose in the pre electoral battle, could its leader give in to the voice of wisdom, and comply with his word given in Maputo. Ramtane Lamamra, president of the African Union’s PSC warned that any leader’s failure to appear would cancel the meeting. In its attempts to force Madagascar’s political mobilities to the settlement of a national unity government in view of democratic elections supposed to lead to the return of constitutional order, the ICG would potentially have run out of resorts. Sanctions are very likely to come into force on March 17th, 2010, on the first anniversary of Antananarivo’s mayor’s led Coup.  

The international community does not need to have to recognize Madagascar. However, it definitely does not recognize the dictating HAT one year after its putsch. There is, as a matter of fact, a standard scheme, a defined line of conduct against unconstitutional changes originated powers: national reconciliation, national conference for the consensus’ sake, a national unity government preparing elections…. Madagascar would have made a more than decent score sheet with a consensual and inclusive transitional charter. Besides, Andry Rajoelina has been spoiled, since the Charter signed in Maputo would not have hindered him from running the presidential contest. But a couple of major reasons had to stop the half military half civilian Coup’s author from expecting validation through the polls. 

Reason number one: any leader altering the Constitution in order to validate his candidacy is de facto illegitimate. Reason number two: transitional officials would not be entitled to be involved within the next elected power, a matter which would have left him very much isolated, could he have won the race. Altering (be it lowering or increasing) the President’s constitutional minimum age has the same effect as stacking several mandates more in a row. If Andry Rajoelina keeps a low profile and waits for his maturity before daring the polls, his plan might eventually work, someday. Being elected mayor and propelled on top of the State necessarily stirs up a certain love for power. But outside the Maputo framework, Andry Rajoelina will forever be one more dictatorial leader on the wall, whether he is ruling the HAT or the whole southern hemisphere.