the after-roadmap: the crisis gets a new shape

In New-York, at the United Nations headquarters, Andry Rajoelina appeared no more as the putsch maker, but rather as the president of the High Authority of transition in the Republic of Madagascar. He praised an alleged success of a pacific round of negotiations and a certain Malagasy people´s victory through the ” fihavanana “. A speech obviously sounds like a heap of bullshits, regarding the real situation on the ground after the signing of the roadmap. The SADC imposed a confusing text, and left to the Malagasy authorities and politicians the prerogative of reaching common ground, something that´s regularly been failing during the latest three years. 

The imposed power swiftly made use of the famous article 20 in order to try to arrest Marc Ravalomanana in South Africa. The move may certainly be ludicrous, but it is first and foremost a deterrent addressed to the exiled president. The top command of the HAT´s military police has altered its speech ever since: the ten officers sent in South Africa would be supposed to protect and not to arrest the exiled president. The year 2009´s putsch might, in the end, be everything but a complete success. 

Since the return of president Ravalomanana is not to be reached by a political agreement, the SADC´s roadmap is on its way to undergo the Maputo agreements´ fate. In order to prevent another remake, the Ratsiraka, Zafy and Ravalomanana spheres, as well as the Citizens´ Movement for Reconcilement led by Raymond Ranjeva, are calling upon a summit between the four sphere leaders. The can apparently not be implemented without a real political agreement. Albert Zafy does actually not recognize Andry Rajoelina even though his sphere signed for the dialogue´s sake. 

The HAT is holding the signing of the SADC´s roadmap as a kind of capitulation of the opposition, and consequently yearns for keeping doing it its own way. The TGV herd and its allies are now straining to corrupt the article 5, according to which the Prime minister must not be part of Rajoelina´s sphere of influence. In other words, it would mean that the future national unity government chief is to come from ” the opposition “, from any of its 3 spheres. 

The 10 are pushing for keeping Camille Vital in charge, their Prime minister, himself rather unwilling to step down. The general Andrianafidisoa, restored as general by the HAT, is the second option, complying with Ambohitsorohitra´s obsession of keeping the army under control. 

The fact that Rajoelina Andry would be choosing the Prime minister and the government’s members would make the opposition´s contribution completely unnecessary. The sharing of transitional positions was not addressed by this roadmap, for having been the cause of the Maputo agreements´ failure in 2009.  The 10  are thinking merely an extension of the institutions up,  without a single change of their chairmanship, whereas the opposition´s three spheres are holding the same institutions as immediately dissolved by the signing of the roadmap 

In the end, the HAT is putting its money on a slight opportunity to enforce a fake inclusiveness, and get international legitimacy without having to settle the crisis through any deal. Unless the SADC or the 4 sphere leaders turn clear explanations out for each of the roadmap´s articles, the political and institutional crisis in Madagascar is nowhere near to being settled.