The history of the programmed end of common gas in Madagascar

When the consumption of a product as common as gasoline is plummeting, its end is most likely the next chapter. Under the Ravalomanana regime, common gasoline consumption did not really hold its promises. It was normal since the government had favoured the ecological cause. Common gasoline gained in quality back then, and got rid of lead. An unprecedented scoop in the country, premium and common gasoline had no other differences but their octane indexes, respectively SP 95 and 91. In face of an automotive park largely made of 15 years or more old vehicles, this policy aimed to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Beware of old valves requesting leaded gas to get lubricated.    

The ecological virtues of the new common gas (CG) did not necessarily cause rush from drivers. The price difference with Premium (P) – in no way the European market’s leaded Premium – was beginning to melt down, and in the end, turned merely psychological. The social parameter disappeared; there was no more top class gasoline, far more expensive and dedicated to sexy coaches. In the year 2000, the litre of Premium costed 1000 ariary against 680 ariary for a litre of common gasoline. Both prices started to be nearly the same from the year 2005, namely Ar 1980 for a litre of Premium, and Ar 1798 for a litre of  common gasoline, in July of this year. This date is a genuine reference since the price alteration had definitely upset the previous price increase tendency between May and June 2005. The liter of Premium had increased from 1780 to 2380 ariary, so had the liter of common gasoline, from 1424 to 1650 ariary. 

In 2006, by the beginning of the oil crisis, the crude oil price increases had not impact on refined product’s consumer prices: Ar 2724 for a liter of Premium, and Ar 2603 for a liter of common gas in September. Both fuel types, SP 95 and SP91, are obviously practically equal in production cost and quality. The octane index parameter is more a matter of mechanics. The price difference fluctuated anyway. The fluctuation motion depended on the quantity of available stock. During the year 2009, the liter of Premium was still 80 to 100 ariary more expensive. The political crisis led impact which is currently slowing the economy down is affecting the demand more than it is affecting the price increase. From January to September 2009, the liter of Premium has jumped from 2580 to 2720 ariary, against 2500 to 2680 ariary for the liter of common gasoline. 

The programmed disappearance of common gas is illustrated by the continuously plummeting exports. From 140 000 m3 in the year 2000, the imported quantity dropped up to 90 000 m3 in 2007. In 2002, due to shortages and economic barricades, Madagascar had imported more common gas (90 000 m3) than Premium 91 in 2009 (70 000m3 estimated). According to the Malagasy Fuel Management Office (locally know as OMH), common gas has remained the Malagasy drivers’ favourite product. The imported quantity ratio is leaving no place for appeal. During the first nine months of 2009, oil companies have imported 48 622 m3 of SP91 against 25 111 m3 of SP95. The end of common gas imports will mean price increase for consumers. Fortunately, it is not meant to be very acute.