The Honduran script: A difficult choice for Marc Ravalomanana

The Maputo and Addis Ababa processes meant to end the crisis have, now, very scarce chances to succeed. The president of the High Authority of Transition, Andry Rajoelina, has made his choice: unilateralism to the end. So, Marc Ravalomanana is, consequently going to have to make his own one.  

In spite of vehement exhortations produced by the three political mobilities bound by the signature of the Maputo agreements, the deadlock is complete. The Maputo is definitely dead. Ousted half way to the end of his second and last mandate, the elected president is, now, compelled to take a new move on.  

 Scepticism is currently winning ground. Marc Ravalomanana’s supporters lost their faith  in a “consensual transition “, and increasingly believe the three mobilities’ efforts to be dimmed to fail. The High Authority of Transition is actually feeling free to use any mean to break them. 

Marc Ravalomanana has, consequently, no choice no more. Could he plan to go home, he is going to have to pluck up an awful lot of courage. His partisans are yearning nothing but his come back to reorganize the counterstrike. 

The Honduran president Manuel Zelaya ran the risk to return in his country, though being deprived from any shadow of support from the armed forces. Marc Ravalomanana did not. The Malagasy president can still stand by support from an important share of the army. Everything is, however, a matter of organization, since the command is irretrievably mastered  by Andry Rajoelina. 

A large part of his partisans are convinced of it: if Marc Ravalomanana successfully mobilizes militaries loyal to him, the HAT will have to stand back and think again. The imposed authorities will therefore have no other choice but conceding a return to the negotiation table or concede the whole power.  

The diplomatic protection, still in reference to the Zelaya script, will not pledge Marc Ravalomanana’s return to power. It might not be the best of his options.  

No doubt that the choice is difficult for the ousted president. But he is going to have to make one sooner or later. In between, Andry Rajoelina and his herd are undisputedly reigning on the Great Isle. Without daring initiative from their adversaries, nothing will hinder them from running to the end of the Transition on their own, without its “inclusive” and” consensual ” pledged qualities. The present leaders yet concede the fragility of their authority. But they know that as long as the breeze fails from turning into a hurricane, the tree will not fall down.