two, three or four party talks?

Rajoelina’s proxies as well as some mediators are welcoming the idea of head to head political negotiations between Marc Ravalomanana and Andry Rajoelina, the 2009 Malagasy political crisis’ main actors. Alain Joyandet, French Secretary of State, would have proposed the same. But Marc Ravalomanana is looking inclined to keep going forward with four party talks, in respect for the Maputo and Addis-Ababa bases. 

The situation is yet confusing. The mediators are preparing a meeting. Marc Ravalomanana did not yet state any official decision, but media groups loyal to Rajoelina appeared to draw the exiled president’s foregone choice. 

The prognoses might once again be fooled by the events. Observers are, this time around again, going to have to reckon with the famous “evolution of the situation on the ground”. And this situation is, at present, overshadowed by grumbles gaining ground within the armed forces and view opposition between supporters of the High Authority of Transition’s leader, as well as he increasingly tense anger from opposition supporters. 

Some of Marc Ravalomanana’s supporters are already considering an eventual implementation of the Maputo agreements without Andry Rajoelina. In this case, the crisis solution would be dealt by three of the country’s former presidents.