What kind of international pressure on Madagascar will make the HAT curve its stand?

Beside the war of influence engaged between France and the United States since the beginning of the Malagasy political crisis, African organizations keep holding on. In the name of the holy principle of power limitation, the regional organization SADC is being “followed” by the continental organization AU, which reflects the stand adopted by the whole international community. In the end, partners and financial backers’ stands  towards Madagascar are far from being one.  

The SADC reiterated its rejection of the High Authority of Transition’s U-turn operated by one of Andry Rajoelina’s simple order at the expense of the agreements signed in presence of the international community. According to the regional organization, negotiations and the setting up of a consensual and inclusive Transition is the only way out of from the political crisis. It is calling upon Malagasy politicians to show evidences of humility by thinking over the nation’s interest in priority, and pledges no recognition to the legislative election patched up by the Rajoelina mobility.  

The HAT  has always been disowning the SADC, boasting to be uneager to get lectured by its member countries, namely on democracy issues. New means of pressure have been discussed during a summit in January. Individual sanctions pending on this imposed authority’s leaders failed to produce a lot of impact. Economic sanctions are not that much easy since the customs advantages are in no way in force as long as exports towards the region’s countries have not started. The military option very logically emerges by itself. It, however, remains a proposition from President Robert Mugabe, and not the SADC’s official position yet.  

The African Union is even less equiped to impose pressure on the imposed authorities. The HAT and the Rajoelina mobility do not make a secret of their despise for the African organization that they accuse to be inclined to support the elected President Marc Ravalomanana. A suspension or an exclusion of Madagascar does not make a sufficient deterrent against the HAT. The mediation’s failure is even been attributed to the AU which has a leading role in the international contact group.  

France is playing a double game. It quickly condemned the Maputo III resolution, signed by the three mobilities without Andry Rajoelina. Paris seems to hesitate between a return to the basic Maputo I and  Addis Ababa agreements, on one hand, and the unilateral organization of legislative elections by the HAT. The imposed authorities are expecting absolution to be following the completion of these very controversial elections. France ,however, asked for some guarantees of a democratically conducted election. It opened an alternative to a consensual transition which actually failed from being bought.  

The American department is being alarmed by the arbitrary and anti-democratic series of actions perpetrated by of the imposed authorities in Madagascar. Do the United States have other means of pressure but the eligibility to the AGOA? The HAT is ready to sacrifice the score number of thousands of jobs precisely in order to get rid of this hindering American pressure. Any stand against “this superpower which punished the Malagasy people” would consequently be legitimate. In the name of national sovereignty, Andry Rajoelina’s propaganda hardcore is publically calling upon Prime minister Camille Vital to turn the American ambassador away.  

His excellence Mr Niels Marquardt is being accused of “having too much hatred against Madagascar” as well as “personal grievances against Andry Rajoelina”. “The American government’s statement is the same as the one produced by the three mobilities and the pastors’ movement” because” the State Department is being misinformed by the ambassador” they said. Measures are being asked “before Washington sends its spies and GI’s to Madagascar” they said. The Rajoelina mobility’s anti-American feeling is, as a matter of fact, a lot more exacerbated than the three mobilities anti-French feeling.