Year 2010’s budget: neither legislative authorization nor international recognition

A year 2010’s budget at all cost! The High authority of transition, henceforth the designation of the imposed authorities’ presidency, certainly forced its way through, but did not forget to ask for the HCC’ s blessing. Such a control on the finance law project’s legality process is not usual at all, but remains possible in exceptional settings of those of a constitutional mess. The government will, therefore, be entitled to use public funds on Monday January 04th, 2010.  

It is a great relief since the budget has been “legalized” on the year’s latest day. There was actually not so much suspense as it may look, since a previously abiding HCC could hardly do otherwise than following suit. The delayed validation of the year 2010’s law, basically meant to be completed on December 16th, 2009, is removing all the possibilities to put another verdict from the constitutional Court. The administration was on the verge of being paralyzed, all the way unable either to collect state returns or to make expenditures. The decision has, on this account, been enforced on December 31st, 2009.  

Is this evidence of a good timing or the sign of difficulties to patch a state budget without support from financial backers? In any case, the Treasury secretary integrated the possibility or the hope to use some 1200 billions ariary of unblocked foreign help. It won’t in the immediate term since the manna is expected to fall down by the year’s second semester. This perspective is obviously based on the March 2010’s legislative election announced by Andry Rajoelina. An envelope of 30 billions of ariary is planned for the organization of this vote.  

The HAT has, therefore, a double game. Its first concern is the demonstration of Madagascar’s commitment to recover constitutional order to the international community, while having the state budget of its liking voted by a devoted National Assembly strongly in place for five years.  In between, how on earth does one cope with a half legal budget? The transitional authorities will enforce a far tougher austerity policy than the one planned by the year 2010 finance law. Up to the legislative poles, expenses will have to flirt with the 10% budgetary red line.  

This prudent policy reveals the state finance’s precariousness without insurance of the helps from financial backers. The IMF stayed out of from the year 2010’s budget making process, which is no surprise at all since this institution’s member states do not recognize the “country “. The European Union is being held aside by the Cotonou agreements and cannot make an exception for Madagascar in spite of France’s interested impatience. The World Bank’s projects are not financed, and no assessment mission is being expected before a genuine return to constitutional order. The solution to rescue the country’s economy is the same as the cause for its downturn: political.