Andry Rajoelina, procrastination from a stranded potential candidate

Taking the bull by the horns and enforcing accomplished facts; Andry Rajoelina does not break with his tradition although Madagascar and the international community expect a firm statement from him about his renunciation to run the race into the presidential election of May 2013. “I took the decision to keep away from the next presidential election to be organized before the end of the year … It is a final promise produced in order to complete the transition as objectively as possible, “said Andry Rajoelina, pretending to act as a responsible man of honor, back in May 2010 though.

The international community wants to convince

According to the outcome of his meeting with the President of the SADC’s Troika, namely Jakaya Kikwete, the Head of the Tanzanian State, the transitional leader has until the end of December 2012 to think over carefully and make his decision. And now, the artist plays the same piece of music by setting for himself an even longer deadline following his meeting with the French Minister of Foreign Affairs. The SADC insists on an answer to be given before 2013 even if the decision gets publicly revealed on March 08th, when presidential candidates will have to fill their files up as such.

Laurent Fabius was basically expected to provide unconditional support to Rajoelina’s presidential ambitions… not in this era yet. The French diplomacy’s number one has clearly invited Rajoelina to keep away from the election. The diplomatic tone is however being politically exploited by the year 2009’s putsch maker for the sake of saving the appearances: “It was even not an attempt to convince me, but merely an exchange of ideas.” At the Quai d’Orsay, a Minister would share personal opinions and summon someone to travel half the globe to share them, would he not?

Laurent Fabius must have explained why the HAT leader would do well to refrain from running this election instead promising him a fabulous future pledge by his youth, namely a far better political position within five years. The young Rajoelina promised to ponder the issue carefully. “No decision will be taken during celebration time,” he decided. The whole world must wait until he deigns producing the declaration dedicated to the Malagasy people in priority.

An unwilling candidate, is he not?

Apart from the simple greed for power which has been infecting him since 2009 as he’s been the little king of Madagascar, why on earth would Rajoelina actually feel compelled to run this bloody presidential race at all? Of course, pressure from domestic and foreign economic actors who substantially invested into the popular movement supported by a section of the army in 2009; pressure from politicians who took advantage of the transition, and finally expect to win elections; pressure from the will of his supporters rocked by populism and propaganda over the latest three years; all of these are hindering the TGV from running back.

Can the national sovereignty of Madagascar possibly be jeopardized by the mere fact of having Andry Rajoelina out of the race? For the time being, the international community expects the HAT’s leader to withdraw off his own bat from a race, foregone conclusion of which will never ever be internationally recognized. The putsch was outlined from scratch by the hurried will to alter the Constitution of the Republic, merely for the sake of running the elections. The AU, the SADC and the entire international community have not been so easily fooled and stick to their common stand, namely the denial of recognition to the misuse of democratic means in order to provide an unconstitutional government change with legitimacy.

The President expelled by the putsch back in 2009 fulfilled the HAT’s greatest wish by announcing his intentions to keep away from the incoming elections, and inevitably weakened the HAT’s very position by the same way instead of strengthening it. The TGV regime committed to draft laws and texts in order to pave the way to legitimate power to Rajoelina, and to rule Marc Ravalomanana out. And yet, as a matter of irony, the international community has to witness Marc Ravalomanana’s voluntary withdrawal. The Rajoelina sphere, fundamentally opposing his come back home before the elections, out of fear of his capacity to wipe the putsch makers’ ambitions, has to experience such a capacity even when he remains abroad and out of the race… and shudders.