Andry Rajoelina: the calculated failure of Pretoria

France was supposed to lead the debate in Pretoria by enforcing the three political mobility leaders’ signature on its document. Andry Rajoelina definitely did emphasize that he wouldn’t have completed any travel, had the ousted president not agreed on giving in to the French proposition. Did the HAT really believed in its acquirement of the whole of the international community’s support for the Rajoelina mobility'” Teny ifampierana “and for its resolutions.  

Andry Rajoelina was supposed to come out of from this “last chance meeting” with the winner’s crown and exclusively with the winner’s crown. In case of success, he would have earned legitimacy and international recognition. In case of failure, he has got his excuse to rule the opposition out of from his unilateral process. “Talks in Pretoria completely diverted from the agreement protocol, there was a deal, they only had to sign it, but one of them changed his mind, as he always used to change his mind…” argued the authoritarian regime’s leader. 

This targeted tackle against the ousted president Marc Ravalomanana is a shot in the dark since absolutely everything is baseless. In the real world, nobody but Andry Rajoelina is dragging a poor reputation of putsch maker and word breaker, a cause for the African Union’s led latest sanctions. Meanwhile, France came to the rescue. Its ambassador Jean Marc Châtaigner decided that the failure of the Maputo and Addis Ababa was cause by both parties. Such a recovery of the front stage from the former colonial power is far from appreciated by all Malagasy.  

“We are ready to implement the agreement protocol. We must take a move on toward the 4th Republic, no matter whether the other mobilities cooperate or not”. The HAT leader attacked the Maputo agreements anew, and accused the other mobilities of failing from drawing lessons from their failure: “No change at all has been noticed either in their moves or in their intentions”.  

Andry Rajoelina has also induced no change compared to the situation prior to Pretoria: There is nothing to expect from the Maputo and Addis Ababa agreements, although the authoritarian regime’s leader paradoxically emphasized his willingness to set up an inclusive and national unity transition. For this to do, he has to corrupt as many political groupings as possible, including civil society members for the sake of his widened consensus.