Before Addis Ababa: the ICG go-no-go asset for the end of the crisis

After the failure of Maputo II, Addis Ababa is displaying encouraging shots to the ICG mediators. “The meeting of October 06th was very useful to the process”, confided Ablassé Ouedraougo. “When one came back from Maputo, the issue was the transitional Prime Minister’s position being granted to the Ratsiraka mobility; the stage of October 06th solved it”. The African Union’s envoy is ignoring all the rest, and wants to move forward. The main goals are still the legislative and presidential elections. The ICG is ready to do everything in order to put the Great Isle on such path. 

According to Ablassé Ouedraougo, Addis Ababa is only a formality since the most important has been settled. “They can be taken for granted, they are undisputable”, he argued about the institutional key roles assignment within the Transition.  The mediator reiterated that the Transition’s president would be Andry Rajoelina, with Emmanuel Rakotovahiny from the Zafy mobility as vice president, and Mangalaza Eugene from the Ratsiraka mobility on top of the national union government. The Ravalomanana mobility has to do with the Convention of the transition… The Addis Ababa stage “will be the completion of the assignment of all the other key positions”. 

What about the ultimate political negotiations? “No need of signature any more, the single signature is to be found on the charter emerged on August 09th, 2009 from political agreements signed in Maputo “, warned Ablassé Ouedraougo. He is actually trying to short cut Marc Ravalomanana and his mobility’s opposition to the assignment of the Transition’s presidency to a “putsch maker”. The mediator is taking the agreement given by the Ravalomanana delegation chief in Madagascar on latest October 06th for granted. Fetison Andrianirina had accepted Andry Rajoelina on top of the Transition if the later gives up the idea to contest the next presidential elections. 

Addis Ababa might witness an enforced solution to the crisis without any genuine national union. The Rajoelina, Zafy and Ratsiraka mobilities are the winners in the role assignment established in Maputo. Now, the ousted president Marc Ravalomanana is resenting the fact that his mobility is being cast aside from the executive power’s key circle. At best, they can catch up by having more ministers than the others, by accepting the positions previously refused by the civil society. 

Lalao Andriamampionona from the Alliance of the civil society’s organizations is displaying doubts about the inclusive character of the agreement meant to be the basis of the Addis Ababa meeting. “October 06th and the designation of Prime minister Mangalaza have caused problems that only blind persons cannot see”, she protested. As a consequence, mobilities broke apart and unrest emerged in the country. Ablassé Oeudraougo is appearing a lot more optimistic, and displaying trust into Malagasy politicians. “They will find a common ground for the constitution of a national unity government, that I know to be true”, he said. The ICG is promising to monitor and support the process, and eventually flex its muscles for lack of consensus.