Common ground is happening to be further than Gaborone itself

The seven others groups are the ruling power´s boot lickers, in spite of its failure to gain recognition of a faked transitional consensus. In the end, the scheme is depicting a head to head argument after a couple of years of unilateral transition: the Rajoelina band and the joint three spheres. Such a reality is being blurred by the SADC´s eleven invitations

Opposition from scratch

In this umpteenth meeting held in Gaborone, the Rajoelina sphere´s representatives are numerically superior. It would have the advantage, could there be a vote. The target is clear for the TGV and its allies: make a roadmap out of the Simao draft which grants full power to Andry Rajoelina, for lack of a political settlement. “we are travelling merely in order to sign the roadmap so that the transition ends on elections accepted and supported by the international community “, declared one of the party´s officials. 

The three mobilities don’t have it this way. The journey in Gaborone is held as an occasion to negotiate the political crisis´ settlement. The single new thing is the ruling power´s breach of the 24 months long legal duration of the transitional period. In the meantime, Andry Rajoelina organized a personal referendum which failed to grant him international recognition. The African Union rejected the misuse of democratic means to   a unconstitutional government change with legitimacy. 

The Ravalomanana, Zafy, and Ratsirakaspheres are jointly holding the institution of a consensual transition prior to the organization of elections as paramount. The Simao draft summons them however to integrate the authority under the year 2009´s putsch makers´ control. The HAT is besides banning a couple of former presidents to recover the Malagasy territory.    

The invitations sent by the SADC echoed within various parties. The TGV denounces a capital crime, as his majesty Andry Rajoelina is being invited merely as a party member. The ruling power´s chief explicitly required the presidential red carpet, as a condition to his trip to Gaborone. The other spheres received an invitation. The Ratsiraka sphere was separated from the Arema party led by Ange Andrianarisoa. The fake TIM party members corrupted by the HAT were left out   

National talks with the four leaders 

The local CNOSC, a civil society grouping, predicted that the meeting in Gaborone would fail to bring any solution to the crisis. In the run of a meeting with various political forces, it emphasized the need of a national dialogue deemed to lead to a meeting between the 4 leaders in Madagascar up to July 2011. The security of both of the exiled former presidents would consequently have to be insured  

At the time of this meeting, the international jurist Raymond Ranjeva recovered the public scene, the first time after visiting the HAT´s jails, and displayed skepticism concerning the meeting in Gaborone, for” there is not a file to address and not enough time “. 

Raymond Ranjeva is longing for self commitment to listen, understand and push talks forward. “Talks in Gaborone has not been prepared. Based on my own international experience, this roadmap draft´s fate is a concern to me “, he declared. According to the former judge in The Hague, there is one roadmap version ready, and nothing like “the” roadmap. Raymond Ranjeva expects the document to be altered, for having failed to gain the SADC´s blessing.