End of the AGOA: the transitional authorities have no cause for worry

It is not serious! The excess of optimism displayed by the transitional authorities about the loss of the AGOA is amazing. Though economic propaganda is being part of the crisis’ daily menu in the country, the tablet might prove to be far too big to get swallowed this time around. The displayed statistics are supposed to reassure the opinion. The AGOA, the opportunity, offered by the USA to the African countries, to export toward the United States with custom advantages, “only” concerns 37 societies, less than 50 000 direct jobs and about 100 000 indirect jobs. AGOA propelled exports toward the United States only represent 2.7% of state revenues and only a 0.5% high contribution to growth rate. The authorities are, however, eager to concede that the end of the AGOA will be taking its toll of minus 20% on the country’s exports, as well as on foreign currency flow.  

The HAT minister in charge of economy, Richard Fienena, has, for a while, been under pressure for having been given the mission to persuade the American authorities of the legitimacy of keeping Madagascar among the AGOA recipients. Now that the mission failed, critics are swarming from his own camp. Minister Fienena made an error by recognizing that the problem was an exclusively politically based issue. Finally, the AGOA was more than ever perceived as a mean to press the imposed authorities. The minister for economy is pretending that the president of the HAT already made a step in the settlement of the AGOA suspension by organizing legislative elections in March 2010.  

Now that factories dedicated to exports toward the United States shut their doors, Richard Fienena is playing the fireman meant to avoid social explosion. The minister of the economy promised to assess all the possibilities in order to find a solution. A speech is not very realistic, and far too light to reassure the newly jobless thousands up. The solution of newly forthcoming tax free telecommunication oriented enterprises is only fuelling the show. At first, the exploitation of the national fibber optic backbone is depending on the Eassy international cable project’s progress. Then, textile oriented workers, regardless of their skills, are not necessarily suited to the technology field.  

In order to serve societies’ competitiveness on the American market, the devaluation of the ariary is being assessed. The drastic measure might, however, totally upset an economy already weakened by the crisis. A general inflation is to be feared. To sacrifice or not to sacrifice 15 millions people to serve the rescue of 500 000 victims of the end of the AGOA, that is the question. The pro-Rajoelina are straining to downsize the social side effect, and the relevance of this American market. “These workers are being paid misery wages, although foreign corporations make the profits “. As a matter of fact, lost salaries merely amount to 12 billions of ariary, don’t they? The messenger might have not got away that easily, had he addressed the new jobless mobs directly, saying: “losing those jobs does not matter; anyway, you were poorly paid!”