Military rule or junta: the army as sluggish as divided

The green machine is clearing for action, it is the least that could be said. On Friday, April 02nd, 2010, a “decisive” declaration was meant to be stated as the outcome of the secret meeting of army high ranked officers. It finally did not come true since the starring actors refrained from performing. The political crisis led call to facing up to responsibilities has, somehow, received a sluggish response. The impatient wing consequently stepped pressure up. A group of officers, part of which is one of the top leading army chief, are anxious to make the transition’s steering wheel theirs. 

The national state police’s intervention forces (FIGN) would equally be on the verge of recovering the pending change’s front stage. Since general Zafera has previously pledged his thorough devotion to Andry Rajoelina, Fort Duchesne’s involvement in any power struggle action is likely to be favourable to the HAT leader. The possible future candidate as well as likely presidential favorite is compelled to secure his position. For this to do, negotiating further more, let alone conceding anything likely to strengthen the enemy’s position, is definitely off the point.   

To be or not to be having to surrender power to the army? That is the question concerning Andry Rajoelina. The positive answer is a plus for the transitional leader, eventually able to get away with it, despite all of his led economic mess left behind, and to get his potential presidential candidacy. According to many observers, the young TGV is dried out by a power hampered by the lack of international recognition, social tensions as well as the country’s economic troubles. The negative answer would lead straight to a potentially legitimate putsch as a new starting point to the transition: another military direction. In such a case, the armed forces would run an express transitional management, just to cast the halfway ready elections. 

In case of military rule, the next first man in command of the nation is already known: the general André Ndriarijaona. The HAT joint chief of headquarters can actually stand by the regiment chiefs’ unconditional support, a vital ingredient to any military action. His score sheet is far better than that of the HAT minister for national defense, considered as far too much stinking politics. The general Noel Rakotonandrasana is far from being the army’s favorite doll for the moment. 

The calculation will anyway have to make sure to integrate the HAT KGB, the Special Intervention Force. The squadron of handymen commanded by Lt-Colonels Charles Andrianasoavina and René Lylson already displayed evidences of nervousness when drawing the heavy artillery against a shadow of raid on the presidential palace. History has long been proving that only the past is time and time again re-enacted. The HAT rebels assaulted the palace of Ambohitsorohitra in March 2009, and knighted the self proclaimed Andry Rajoelina. They broke in without meeting any resistance, although, they certainly do not intend to surrender without putting up a due fight.