Ny Hasina Andriamanjato evokes some elections… in a hurry

It is no more a taboo. The return to constitutional order by the electoral way can happen before the end of the year 2009. It is a big change compared to the HAT’s roadmap that established a national assembly. Ny Hasina Andriamanjato hinted two conditions which can question everything and allow the HAT to step back. 

One, the government of transition is going to organize the votes” if the necessary means are available “. Two, these elections, legislative and presidential, should happen only after the constitutional referendum. The constitution change question remains besides on one hand the breakpoint between the HAT, the other parties and the international community on another side. 

The assemblies and one-sided conferences of the TGV and the Rajoelina block are going to lay a text filled with political calculation. By this future constitution, Andry Rajoelina can possibly contest as a candidate, the required age to be president will therefore be lowered. The fundamental law will also be a mean to eject other potential candidates as Marc Ravalomanana and Pierrot Rajaonarivelo by playing on an age limitation. 

The HAT and Andry Rajoelina have a lethal weapon: the justice. After the condemnations of many politicians, the general amnesty could be the object of an electoral promise. One stroke for two hits: eject adversaries and attract the voters’ sympathy. 

By announcing his noble intention to comply with  the international community’s recommendation on the holding of a presidential election this year, the HAT must be sure not to have anything to lose. The stake is making Andry Rajoelina a candidate and eliminating other pretenders. The elections will only be a formality if the TGV manages to carve a to order suited Constitution. 

The turning back of the authorities of the transition was quite fast after the European Union asked for a return to short-term constitutional order. A referendum and two elections in only four months, this precipitation hides the fear to see the elected president re-established at the head of the state. The HAT removes importance from the process of dialogue for the erection of a consensual transition. 

The HAT could therefore impose a “de facto” electoral calendar. The logic that puts the legislative before the presidential is maintained. The Rajoelina side insists on the Constitution change and forecasts a referendum by September, after the adoption of the text project in the national conference, by the end of July. 

In the initial HAT’s roadmap, the presidential election is programmed for September-October 2010. Andry Rajoelina had meant its intention to direct the country for a short mandate of 19 months. The American ambassador Niels Marquardt had insisted then on presidential elections before the end of 2009 to re-establish constitutional order in Madagascar. He has been threatened of being expelled on «interference ” charges.