SADC having to face up to the Rajoelina political sphere

The implementation of the Roadmap as the single possible way out of from the crisis in Madagascar, then the need to respect the electoral calendar basically issued by the transitional Independent National Electoral Commission and accepted the United Nations, have been emphasized again. Such a move hints that the SADC’s Troika advance actually gains confidence in its role into the crisis settlement process in Madagascar. Marc Ravalomanana’s announced pull out of the incoming elections compelled Andry Rajoelina to emulate and, by so doing, removed a significant stumbling block. The Rajoelina political sphere is losing ground and threatens to jeopardize the whole process.

As far as the SADC is concerned, both of the main wire pullers in this Malagasy political crisis may be praised for their decision to give up the idea of challenging each other in the electoral confrontation. Advantage for Marc Ravalomanana ! He laid the weapons down first and condemned Andry Rajoelina’s immediate ambitions. The HAT regime and the Rajoelina political sphere appear utterly exasperated by such an international credit granted to the former president, whom they strained to demonize, deprive of his eligibility and charge with fictional criminal offenses.

In order to make an idea of the SADC’s Troika’s newly regained confidence, do bear in mind that the international organizations dares to “suggest” to the transition parliament largely dominated by the Rajoelina sphere, not to oppose the general amnesty “to be granted ”to the transitional leader, the security forces, as well as to the former president.

The TGV party and its allies lose their temper at what is being held as an “insult” against their leader, namely his highness Andry Rajoelina, would not need amnesty for having not been convicted by any court. As a matter of fact, he hasn’t yet. But he will not be able to hide under the skirts of his precious justice minister appointed in the open air on the Place of May, 13th, forever, will he?

The year 2009’s events and the revelations progressively made by some key players of the putsch are likely to lead Rajoelina straight away to a court, could the odds ever change. Just like all the elected former presidents, he could enjoy a decent status and immunity, however only against a counterpart: the transitional regime must grant the same favor to Marc Ravalomanana.

Considering that the “ neither – nor” (neither Rajoelina nor Ravalomanana at the presidential elections) can be held for granted, the SADC urges the Malagasy political class to assume its role of peace promotion in order to overcome the crisis. Rajoelina’s ruling power and his political movement used to point at the exiled president as at a potential troublemaker. Times have changed, now “they” are suspected of threatening peace and order. They are in the sight.

The SADC’s position actually pushes the transitional ruling power and its leader in the ropes. Andry Rajoelina is compelled to respect neutrality and refrain from using his influence to support any candidate. The Southern African Community “approves the presidential and parliamentary electoral deadlines of May and July 2013”, and rejects Rajoelina’s latest attempt to manipulate them, namely tackling the legislative before the presidential elections, now that he was forced out of from the presidential race.

Even though the Troika merely mentioned the implementation of the Roadmap, the delicate issue of the President’s come back home in from his South African exile land is still to be settled. Will Marc Ravalomanana be entitled to a travel with a one-way ticket? When? before or after the election? before or after the adoption of the amnesty law? A certain number of signatories of the Roadmap are bound to tolerate such a comeback. Only the hardliners of the Rajoelina sphere remains ready to renew the putsch in spite of four years of undisputed rule.