The HAT in the eye of the storm

Defection here, disappointment there. The negative considerations of the High Authority of Transition were legions these days. The situation seems to complicate itself for the ousters of Marc Ravalomanana, as time goes by. 

Four months after military Coup in mid-March, we can openly wonder whether the Transition driven by Andry Rajoelina has so much time left to direct the country at will. 

The army in particular and the police forces in general are still indeed fundamentally divided. For example, a lively argument failed short from ending in exchanges of fire between elements of the police Criminal Brigade and the members of the famous Special Intervention Force (locally called FIS) regrouping the HAT’s special commando forces.  

The misunderstanding between the two entities concerned an irrelevant conflict of expertise, since both services met on the same swindle case. 

At the same time, the army reservists, who supported four months ago, the street demonstrations directed by Andry Rajoelina, began hardening the tone. They estimate themselves abandoned compared to the military servicemen recently rewarded by the HAT. 

On the political ground, the new radical opposition, ex-president Alebrt Zafy’s CRN, might penalize the Transition’s leaders.  

Whereas Marc Ravalomanana is supposed to be Rajoelina’s main rival, there comes indeed a third kid in the block who does what it takes to be heard. The Zafy party even foresees an insurgent government named” “public salute government” if the Transition’s charter is not signed soon. 

If Albert Zafy does what he threatened, the High Authority of Transition could inflict him Manandafy Rakotonirina’s fate, Prime minister appointed by Ravalomanana. No discrimination allowed, an arrest of the members of the Zafy “government” is not excluded. Such situation might certainly not drive to any political easing. 

Let’s not forget either that the legalistic party which requires Marc Ravalomanana’s return to power didn’t fire their last shell yet. The daily gatherings actively continue and would be able to, in case of major upset, to constitute a real time bomb for the HAT. 

In the social field, a new grouping of the” former militants of May 13th” directed by a certain Roger Rakotomanga had let its “disappointment” known following its struggle on the public place to support  Andry Rajoelina’s “revolution”. Rakotomanga estimates that the social aspect is rarely considered by the HAT whereas the population keeps facing the same usual difficulties.  

Finally, the fragility of the HAT appears in broad daylight. Some internal dissensions could also dent the putschist regime. Some observers are persuaded that in case of election, the current leaders of the Transition will never manage to get along on a possible unique candidate.