The ICG in Antananarivo: the consensus vs. the unilateral election

The arrival of Jean Ping, President of the African Union’s Commission and leader of the International Contact Group involved in the resolution of the Malagasy crisis, is expected to break the political and legal deadlock. The HAT had to repeatedly resort to orders imposed as constitutional laws in order to match a regime to its liking. Although Andry Rajoelina and his allies publicly disowned any new international mediation in favour of national unity and cohabitation, gates are proving to be not totally locked.

Norbert Ratsirahonana, Andry Rajoelina’s political mastermind in the setting of negotiations with the other mobilities has, therefore, met the ICG’s envoys. Both Prime ministers Albert Camille Vital and Eugene Mangalaza have also been heard during this scouting phase. The Zafy mobility’s transitional Co President, Emmanuel Rakotovahiny has, then, been received by the ICG. Talks with Fetison Rakoto Andrianirina, transitional Co President is also on schedule. An arrest warrant is, nevertheless, still threatening the Ravalomanana mobility’s delegation chief. As for the president of the HAT, his own pre conditions might hinder him from directly participating to the scouting meetings.

Prime minister Camille Vital already has already provided a clue concerning the dictating authorities’ stand and intentions. The HAT and its government are only swearing by their elections to put an end to the one year long crisis. March 20th is the capitalization of a rather childish political calculation, and finds it hard to get legal foundation, let alone legitimacy. A constituent assembly would avoid the referendum showdown to the HAT and Andry Rajoelina. These transitional deputies would be kept in charge up to their fourth Republic’s advent and beyond. Political parties and civilian society’s associations have naturally expressed their disagreement of the Rajoelina mobility’s strategy.

Even the promoters of the national conference, normally devoted to the HAT, are now against it. This civilian society entity’s mission has been restricted to the regional conferences. Now it is recommending to the HAT to refrain from going on with this contested legislative election. “National conference, meant to assess the Constitution and the other necessary laws definitely must be set in priority”, confirmed Nirina Richard in the name of the regional consultations’ follow up committee. This first historical disagreement stems from the Rajoelina mobility’s intention to have the constitutional project be approved and enforced by Mylord’s order before holding the elections.

Though an election contested and boycotted by the others, the Rajoelina mobility is pushing its luck to get an undisputed reign during its 4th Republic. Can it do away with national and international recognition for so much? In any case, the HAT is leaving an opened door to a shadow of intention to restore constitutional order, be it merely in order to seduce foreign partners and financial backers, by promising an elusive post electoral national unity! The ICG constitutes a significant obstacle on this unilateral roadmap. The African Union has actually also put its mediation credibility in stake in the democratic resolution of the crisis.