The three mobilities are proposing militaries on top of the transition

The three mobilities Zafy Albert, Marc Ravalomanana and Didier Ratsiraka wouldn’t propose a military board to the international Group of contact. They are talking about entrusting the jobs of the Transition’s president, vice-president and Prime minister to army officials. 

At least, the consensus has been found between these three entities. In the end, none of the three presidents is keen on providing the transitional presidency’s legitimacy to the author of a putsch. They are agreeing on entrusting state command to a neutral and, by nature, effective entity. 

The equation is not as simple as it seems. The Transition’s president should, then, be the top army commander. Already, the Vice-admiral Hyppolite Ramaroson, as the army’s oldest peer, is off the race. This former board member who has been given power by Ravalomanana had been become a “witness” used by Andry Rajoelina to validate his de facto transitional regime. 

Who is going to choose and appoint the vice-president or the Prime minister? Political mobilities or simply the presiding officer? Such trench war is very likely to stress divisions within the army. 

The strategy of the three mobilities is a retaliation thrown against an army commanded and controlled by mutinous officers respectively ranked colonel and commander. If the armed forces’ support for the Rajoelina mobility is dented, the political coexistence will be far easier. 

The proposition of the three mobilities doesn’t match the line drawn by the Maputo agreements. It is remaining a possible solution, for lack of consensus. However, it is far from being illogical, as the year 2009 putsch could have neither occurred nor succeeded without the involvement of the army  

This consensus for the three doesn’t question the points previously agreed by all four mobilities. In clear, neither the government nor the other institutions’ composition put in place are compromised. The proposal is to be transmitted to the ICG before the signature of a final agreement. 

The latest army officers meetings had influenced these latest days’ events. The pro-Rajoelina are threatening to reverse their favourite if he is making too many compromises with the “enemy” mobilities. Some officers, besides, have gathered, only to defend Monja Roindefo’s job as Prime Minister. 

The stand which seems the most serious would be the military putsch threat could Andry Rajoelina failed to be legitimized as the Transition’s president. In one these meetings between officers, a famous commander proposed to claim a mobility for the army. The idea is to get a share for the soldiers within the transitional government. The fires of war are coming closer again…