The way to an inclusive transition controlled by the Rajoelina sphere

The resumption of negotiations between the political crisis´ actors is starting in total shambles. Talks between the TGV-UDR and the Ravalomanana sphere´s TIM are alerting the other political forces. The dictating authority is first and foremost keen on keeping its allies close, and not losing them to any other political sphere. The transitional superior council´s president doesn´t want to leave his seat at all. He is naturally pleased by the situation the way it is, and prefers a political extension.

Raharinaivo Andrianantoandro, who joined the HAT ranks undercover of the TIM label, is equally not bound to leave his position. “The national conference has triggered a logical process”. Out of question to pave the way for Mamy Rakotoarivelo on top of the lower Chamber. After a meeting with Dr. Simao, Raharinaivo Andrianantoandro argued that the SADC would have accepted the running process, the hell with whoever is not eager to emulate

The Rajoelina sphere is keen on keeping in control of the transitional parliament and on defending its prime minister. General Vital was basically not part of the Rajoelina sphere but stemming from a Ratsiraka sphere´s wing. No matter, a consensual prime minister is likely to take over anyway. Since the government would be controlled by a parliament, the genuine stake is the reshuffle or the extension of the parliament´s chambers.

Mamy Rakotoarivelo, the official spokesman of the TIM party and the Ravalomanana sphere is in no way bound to enter the unilaterally erected by the Rajoelina sphere and become a puppet. The opposition´s three spheres are logically entitled to a large majority in the congress while the HAT is in for keep its grip on the transitional superior council.

The Ratsiraka sphere supposed to be entitled to the consensual prime minister´s seat is seemingly more interested in the Admiral´s potential return. The Zafy sphere is not pleased by the fact that the crisis´ settlement is being dealt between the Ravalomanana and Rajoelina spheres. The professor laid his conditions, but is putting his National Council of Reconciliation in the balance.

The presidency is certainly in the Rajoelina sphere´s hands; not enough; controlling the other transitional institutions would insure the acceptation of the unilateral process, including the transitional republic ordered by and for Rajoelina. The TGV´s allies are even bound to pledge inclusiveness and consensus in return of the right to run the presidential race for Rajoelina. The manipulation of the Constitution in order to lower the presidential candidate´s minimum age has not proved enough either.