The deadlock is entrenching

The setting up of the second Monja Roindefo government, in Andry Rajoelina’s version of the Transition, has significantly complicated the political situation of the Great Isle, this time around. The resolution of the political crisis is now more and more unlikely. 

The Maputo agreements had caused reliefs for hope of reconciliation and compromise. The evolution of the situation has, although, dashed the expectations of a real consensus.  

Since the setting up of the new Monja Roindefo government, tension has been going up with threats of street protests blossoming from the other political mobilities.  

Henceforth, the coordinated contestation movement from the three other political mobilities implied in the Maputo process is quite possible. And nothing can be no more ruled out within the next weeks, given that the High Authority of Transition had caused the wrath of the different political entities. 

Even within the army,  loads of diverging voices are being heard. The government of Roindefo has actually turned out many opponents in the ranks of the Dumb Green Machine, but still discretion remains the rule.  

A fringe of the army is supporting the implementation of the Maputo process, yet brought down by Rajoelina’s initiative.  

A month has gone by since the signature of agreements by Marc Ravalomanana, Andry Rajoelina, Didier Ratsiraka and Albert Zafy in Maputo. The four mobilities and the international mediators have agreed on setting all the institutions of the Transition within one month. The vice-president is Rajemison Rakotomaharo. The convention’s presidency has been assigned to Jacques Sylla. These figures were two former collaborators of Marc Ravalomanana. But the process which led to those appointments has actually lacked any shade of compromise. Rajemison himself owned up that he has taken the decision « in a personal manner ». 

Today, the question about the new government’s life expectation is already on the frontline. Indeed, the pressure aiming at pushing the four mobilities to return to the negotiation table, is still very heavy at the international level. And yet the current HAT president’s circle quickly appears quite satisfied with the deadlock.   

For the putschist regime, the concern is already the re-launch, without the other political mobilities, of the national conference.  Blanche Nirina, the national Conference Coordinator, is craving for it. « Since the Maputo agreements are broken, let’s resume the national conferences » she said.  

At the time of this national conference, the HAT and its partisans intend to assess the fourth Republic’s Constitution project, the new electoral code and the « selective » amnesty which will obviously rule Marc Ravalomanana out. No wonder that the mobility Albert Zafy is speaking out of a real « declaration of war » from the team of Rajoelina Andry.  

Therefore, the logic of confrontation prevails again. Meanwhile, the army, although divided, would be in maximal alert, following a strong rumour on an imminent return of Marc Ravalomanana. It would not be the first false alert to make the armed forces clear for action.