A miraculously positive growth for the first semester of 2009

Minister Fihenena announced it like good news. The economic growth during the first semester of 2009 is positive. He advanced a rate of 0.8%. It is quite far from the 7.5% that have been established in the finance law proposed by the Rabemananjara government. The industrial sector actually prevented the economy from sinking. The recent big mining projects have become the basis of the growth in the country. 

The economy re-launch plan has been entrusted to a task force of some key ministries and controlled by the chief of the transition government. The first meaningful measure was the adoption of an order which allows economic victims of the political crisis to be repaid by insurance companies. 

The economic growth doesn’t benefit from the crisis which dents the tax-free textile corporations and the difficult resurgence of tourism. Both sectors directly impact on the available state reserves. The HAT searches for miracles like an arrival of major investors in the country. 

In 2008, the growth has been sustained by the Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) which represented 16.6% of investments in the private sector contributing up to 25.7% to the GDP. 

In 2009, the crisis swept many expected growth factors away, the agricultural boom, the activities linked to the African Union Summit such as construction, tourism, transportation of goods or travellers, trade,. 

The minister of the economy expects the 0.8% growth rate to grow progressively. The beginning QMM’ exploitation in Taolagnaro will be decisive. 

The mining industry will be again the leader in investments, the growth’s engine in this period. Private investments though might just not reach the forecasted 23.2% of the GDP. The millions of dollars expected from the Middle East could take some time to appear. Besides because of the budgetary helps freezing, the public sector is quite limited in its investments. The target 10.2% of the GDP is seriously compromised. 

The government’s economic balance will be catastrophic despite the dazzling publication of fiscal and customs returns. The minister of the economy affirmed that the inflation has been mastered and the soaring of prices didn’t worsen much compared to the evolution observed in 2008. 

The reality on the strategic products is quite different, their prices were supposed to go down considerably, according to Andry Rajoelina’s promises. The fuel prices have dropped a little to raise a lot. Food oil finally costs twice the promised 2500 ariary… gas and basic products coming from Saudi Arabia still remain a… mirage.