Andry Rajoelina: the big decision after the consultation of his allies and partisans

The Rajoelina mobility is intending to fill up the gymnasium to recall that the people is behind the one who took the power back in latest March. What is being announced by the HAT as being a large scale demonstration will be supposed to display « the endorsement of Andry Rajoeilna and his Prime minister Monja Roindefo, by the majority of Madagascans ». 

The HAT led propaganda still looks like a constant pressure on the young Andry Rajoelina to compel him to preserve gains, even if the country has to face up to non recognition as well as sanctions from the international community. 

Arguments are no different and increasingly emphasized to make Andry Rajoelina catch them up: the Transition’s regime is definitely legal because it has been endorsed by the High Constitutional Court; the international community is interfering, and treading upon  Madagascar’s sovereignty… 

The « Forces of change », which are defending their interest behind Andry Rajoelina, are bound to play neither with the elected president Marc Ravalomanana nor with his predecessor Didier Ratsiraka on the same court. The slaughter of February 07th, in which demonstrators had been sacrificed, is considered as a sacred pact to be respected by the current Transition’s leaders. 

Will Andry Rajoelina be able to master his allies, and convince them to let him free to accept the consensus in order to drive the country out of from the crisis? The Forces of Change  are definitely rejecting the projected political coexistence to direct a consensual and inclusive transition. Such a coexistence is dimmed in the Rajoelina mobility ranks to be « damaging for Madagascar ». 

The true damages are going to be caused to the presently acting politicians on the verge of being the casualties of this consensus. The Monima party is emphasizing that Andry Rajoelina is definitely connected to Monja Roindefo by the pact of February 07th. Roindefo would be allowed to be the Prime minister of consensus he is claiming to be, could Andry Rajoelina give up the presidency of the HAT. 

The stranded Rajoelina mobility is now up against a dilemma. The Ravalomanana mobility’s political calculation during Maputo II, namely the rejection of Rajoelina coupled with the welcoming of Roindefo, is engulfing the HAT in quite tight spots. Is Andry Rajoelina going to sacrifice the country, turn down international recognition and public helps, or sacrifice his brother-in-arm, Monja Roindefo, and thus, offer a vacant Prime Minister’s job to the Ratsiraka mobility? 

For the better, Andry Rajoelina runs to his grey matter and, after due consultation, doesn’t follow his political allies. To the worse, the HAT is standing tall on its position and the country is assuming the consequences of the putsch of March 2009. In the latest case, the current leaders of the transition would have no other option but to follow the roadmap drawn at the time of the pro-TGV national assemblies. The decision will probably be known on Thursday before being sent by mail or by fax to the international Contact Group’s mediators.