Elections, government, constitution: the Rajoelina roadmap for 2010

The crisis buster’s starting point according to Andry Rajoelina and the HAT is still the legislative election meant to be held on March 20th, 2010. The self proclaimed transitional Duce confirmed the imposed authorities’ move further away from the Maputo and Addis Ababa agreements which they nevertheless signed. The most controversial issue concerns the electoral « solution » which, apparently, overtakes the transitional period in its implementation and might remain for the whole of the 4th Republic’s first presidential mandate. Thereupon, the constituent assembly will also be a permanent national assembly. 

There has actually been a problem from scratch. How long will these deputies’ mandate last? Now, the HAT does no more dare to refer to the 3rd Republic’s Constitution from fear of contradicting its own statements. Will the structural law meant to rule the legislative election define a determined duration? So what if it was only meant to match a duration supposed to be determined within the future Constitution? A variable duration according to what will be adopted in the fundamental law is even less likely. 

Apart from all of these confusing blanks, a government will be erected in function of the newly elected national assembly’s balance of power. Andry Rajoelina is loosing his way again by confirming that the Prime minister will be chosen by the majority, and be the national unity government’s leader. This is absolute nonsense since no party on earth is compelled to build up an alliance with its adversaries when it has the majority! Any need of an alliance is unjustified, unless the TGV and the Rajoelina mobility are not certain to get the majority. 

Then, the majority national unity government thought up by Andry Rajoelina is going to tackle the most important mission of all: make the new project of Constitution. The international community appeared prudent in face of Antananarivo city’s mayor’s genuine incentives following the unconstitutional government change. The young super patriot or rather super putsch maker, according to who speaks, is, as a matter of fact, not old enough to become President, and would be keen on altering the Constitution to access the presidency   

With a newly Constitution defining the roles and the mission of a national assembly and a set government, one last chapter involving the president of Republic will b a cause for interest. Could the required age fail from being adapted at 35 years old, or why not cancelled, or even levelled to 21 years old as for the other types of elections, it will be a defeat for Andry Rajoelina. The transitional chief is appearing prudent, and, therefore, prefers the national assembly’s confusing vote to the blunt referendum. And since the legislative election will most certainly be boycotted by the three other mobilities, the risk of a majority made of hostile parliamentarians is being reduced. 

The presidential election will be this roadmap’s Holy Grail. Will Andry Rajoelina be crowned before June 26th, 2010, the deadline that he promised to respect in order to provide the Malagasy with a young and new president of Republic on the day of the national independence’s 50th birthday? The setting up of a national independent commission is not necessarily the miracle remedy to enforce legitimacy for this, somehow, hurried and confusing unilateral run in a climate of deep political crisis.