ICG Ultimatum: the HAT does not give up, and straining to dodge sanctions

Madagascar’s dictating authorities are expected to resume the Maputo agreements and Addis Ababa Additional Act’s implementation until March 16th, 2010. The international Contact Group is stepping pressure up on the Rajoelina mobility by providing a deadline. Ultimatum or not, the likely sanctions’ failure to come into force against the country’s rulers appeared as a local success for the High authority of transition. Neither the ICG, nor the African Union’s Peace and Security Council appeared prepared to impose international sanctions promised to the unconstitutional government shift’s authors. 

The HAT is preparing to face up to those sanctions, but does keep hoping for exemption anyway. Ambohitsorohitra confirmed its will to win the international community by the organization of a transparent election, a vote that will put a constituent assembly in place.  His allies are, besides, glorifying Andry Rajoelina as the single one Duce entitled to decide of Madagascar’s way forward. The Duce actually did it his allies’ way when refusing to comply with the Maputo agreements while challenging the international community and its threats of sanctions against the dictating regime.  « I’d rather face up to international sanctions than watching president Marc Ravalomanana back in the country », this HAT member Marson Evariste’s remark sums up the crisis’ stake. 

The Rajoelina mobility turned Jean Ping’s proposed compromise down as a way to restart the engine while complying with the agreements signed by all four mobilities as much as possible.  Andry Rajoelina’s ejection to the advantage of somebody else from his mobility has been being judged off the point by the dictating authorities. The HAT also insisted on keeping its Prime minister Albert Vital in charge while labelling the retired colonel anew as a Ratsiraka mobility figure. But the as such presented national unity government project failed to convince the ICG. The Roindefo II’s governmental reorganization intended by the Vital wand might probably not come true. In the end, the new roadmap defined by Andry Rajoelina is confusing everybody. The strategy meant to avoid the referendum is clear, but the constitution of the national unity government by constituent assembly deputies is struggling to convince. 

The international community’s position is equally clear, and has been proving to be equal to itself since May 2009. A national unity government must be put in place prior to elections. Any unilaterally organized election will not be recognized. The Malagasy Transition’s Charter signed in Maputo by political mobility leaders is the country’s single way out of from the crisis. Could the consensual and inclusive Transition be, in the end, compulsory, the Rajoelina mobility ranks are doing what it takes to shorten it as much as it can. On this account, the HAT is standing by the difficulties to be met by international institutions when implementing sanctions. The legislative election is, for the time being, still to be held during the second half of May 2010.