June 26: the way to diplomatic recognition or to the embargo?

The United States are definitely not altering their stand against the unconstitutional government change in Madagascar. President Barack Obama addressed his congratulations directly to the Malagasy people. « As we recognize and celebrate your country’s independence day, I hope that the Malagasy people resumes to enjoy the fruits of a steady, elected democratically elected in the near future and beyond « . On this account, the jubilee that is one to be recognized, not the government, as a matter of fact.  

As expressed by this congratulation letter, the American diplomacy does not forget the Malagasy crisis. « We keep on supporting the Malagasy people and remain committed to support the process dimmed to lead an inclusive and consensual settlement of this political dead end burdening the nation’s life « , read president Obama’s message. The United States  are hoping Madagascar to recover new democratic institutions in 2011. No recognition allowed until there, unless the transition itself is turning more democratic, in other words inclusive and consensual.  

The Algerian ambassador, the diplomatic body’s dean, addressed his prosperity wishes to the Malagasy « people » for the independence’s 50th birthday. Sem Benali Cherif Abdelaziz cannot fail from including the expected crisis’ settlement within his wishes. « We are hoping the crisis to be soon draw to an end, and the people and the Malagasy nation to recover the path to development « , was declared. He displayed optimism as for the possibility to bring a solution. « I do believe that Madagascar will cope with its current problems », added the diplomat.  

Will a half century’s jubilee be going to alter the international community’s position? June 26th’s parade will provide the answer. In respect of the standard protocol, diplomatic representations are supposed to send their number two to attend official ceremonies. The HAT can still expect the presence of those ambassadors who officially took office after appearing before Andry Rajoelina, namely those of France, the Vatican, Pakistan and Turkey.  

 « The COI organization’s armed forces have been invited, namely those from France, the Seychelles islands, Comoros. Those from the Seychelles have not yet produced any answer (48hours to the ceremony), « they didn’t respond yet », declared the national defense secretary. General Rakotondramasy still expects the neighboring islands’ armed forces to take part in June 26th’s parade in celebration of the Malagasy army 50th birthday.  

As compared to June 26th, 2009, only one parameter changed in the political crisis in Madagascar. Andry Rajoelina realized his inability to run the presidential election. The announcement of his early pull out was however far from enough to earn the international recognition.  Besides, a certain number of opportunist countries would take advantage of Madagascar’s diplomatic isolation to grow roots down.