Madagascar still engulfed in its own crisis: there will be no political deal

Was the second round of talks between Marc Ravalomanana and Andry Rajoelina still necessary, bearing in mind that the CENIT, the local transitional electoral commission issued a calendar? Yes, it was. So do most of the Malagasy people believe, for only a political deal would pave the way towards the decisive electoral showdown between Ravalomanana and Rajoelina. Nothing will go this way that easily. So reads the outcome of the rounds of talks held in the Seychelles. The HAT leader made his point crystal clear: challenging the ousted president into elections is off his point.

When being back from the Seychelles, Andry Rajoelina put quite an aggressive mood on and mockingly declared: “I made proposals, and felt nothing but… hehe! The man did not change; the man will never change.” The ousted president was actually not the one supposed to alter his stand at all, was he? So, as per usual, the leader of the HAT blames the illegally ousted and exiled president for the failure of the last chance talks. Very few people actually expected anything else. “The electoral process based on the issued calendar keeps going on, so did we decide,” proudly declared the author of the year 2009’s putsch. The electoral calendar “conditionally” produced by the CENIT would “somehow” settle everything down by itself like a magic wand, even if the crucial condition was not met.

Understanding the following pattern will help to comprehend what’s coming next: Andry Rajoelina, as per usual, restricts the conception of the Malagasy people to the TGV circle. So, the transitional leader declared that he would never take any decision happening to be inconsistent with the people’s interest – namely with the interest of one percent of the genuine people. His justification? A referendum organized back in November 2010, whose results were supposed to display his actual popularity. The concerned referendum failed from gaining any international legitimacy as a matter of fact. Rajoelina’s next speech might well be a little confusing, but Madagascans have long get used to it: “Could my pull back from elections serve the nation’s supreme interest, then I would pull back. But if it’s not the case…” He already used the same trick back in May 2010. By that time, the international community was to be blamed for forcing him to be untrue to his word.

And now, back to reality! The TGV and its support from the armed forces have a common number one in their top ten of nightmares, namely having to challenge President Ravalomanana into democratic elections. They will use whatever possible trick to keep him away from elections: they will charge and condemn him, deprive him from his right to run elections or bring the Pope to excommunicate him… No matter what it takes, they must not have to run against him. “Each and every elected president, who had to deal with a crisis, was eventually forced out but only by democratic elections. So was Ratsiraka in 1992 and 2002, and Zafy in 1998” simply recalled a member of the Ravalomanana sphere. The crisis’ next chapter will affect the elections.