Addis Ababa : status-quo against a background of terror

It has become crystal clear that Didier Ratsiraka would settle for nothing less than his young rival’s skin. Whether or not it went into publication,
the latest information we have gathered indicates that the physical elimination of President Marc Ravalomanana figures prominently on the former President’s agenda.

Following the incredible incident involving French mercenaries which was thwarted in Tanzania, the new administration reported a second incident involving a new team of some thirty mercenaries. This time, they took off aboard helicopters from East London, South Africa. The new administration’s
spokesperson alleged that they were on a mission to eliminate the president on June 26, 2002 during a ceremony celebrating Madagascar’s Independence Day.

Furthermore, over half of the Malagasy capital city has been without electricity and running water since Friday, following the intentional blow up of electric poles and transformers located east of the city, a willful act vandalism perpetrated, in all likelihood, by pro-Ratsiraka rebels.

The great divide

Although at the height of the crisis, Didier Ratsiraka got into the habit of condescendingly referring to Ravalomanana as his « younger brother », the truth of the matter is that a treacherous political divide currently separates these « feuding brothers ».

Those African Heads of State who met in Addis Ababa on Friday deemed that there is a need for some kind of transitional government to resolve the crisis. According to them, only a new election, and a unanimously agreed upon multi-partisan administration could lead to a national reconciliation. This stand is a mirror image of the former Dakar Agreement which they formulated on April 18, 2002. A Malagasy politician, close to Ravalomanana’s inner
circle, contends that this is their way of saving their « brother » Didier Ratsiraka, while, at the same time, attempting to strip his rival Marc Ravalomanana of his power.

Ravalomanana is an unknown stranger, and a political neophyte who has never set foot inside the inner circle of Africa’s seasoned dictators. His
successful bid for the Island’s highest office is threatening to upset the
apple cart all over the region. The fact that he has effectively dethroned a veteran politician, a crusty old wolf of the Malagasy Political arena who has jealously shielded his power for twenty years, will hardly go unnoticed.

Marc Ravalomanana, who would prefer to stop all negotiations with Didier Ratsiraka, sent a delegation, led by his Vice-Prime Minister, Narisoa Rajaonarivony to the Addis Ababa Summit. No long-lasting solution came out of this meeting.

Locally, pro-Ratsiraka supporters only control a mere 10% of the national territory (a small portion Antsiranana in the North, and a small portion of Toamasina in the East).

Translated by Jeanne Françoise Razanamiadana