Maputo, the last chance meeting for a political consensus

From this political crisis which has been undermining the country and its economy since the beginning of the year, a winner will have to emerge.  In the best case, the consensus will go through. It would suppose a return to constitutional order, the restoration of the elected president but with redefined powers within an authority of transition and a national union government. 

The Rajoelina mobility already claims victory. It would have happened on March 17th, 2009, when the young mayor of Antananarivo, the self proclaimed president of the High Authority of transition and chief of an insurrectional government, successfully put his grip on a power which has been entrusted by President Ravalomanana to a military command. For the HAT, the stake of Maputo will be the confirmation of the transition’s regime through the integration of some elements stemming from the other mobilities. 

For the Ravalomanana side, all options remain open, but every opportunity to find a consensus through dialogue has first to be thoroughly explored. Fetison Andrianirina warned that Maputo will be the last stage. The struggle for power or for the restoration of legality is likely to take a new turn. However, the TIM is open to the idea of a quick presidential election, in which the militarily ousted president would take part. 

Far from being loquacious about its real immediate and future ambitions, the Ratsiraka mobility only calls upon an amnesty for Arema members condemned in relation to the 2002 political crisis. Could it get what it wants, the Arema would have to solve an internal rivalry and to settle its dispute with the imposing dissident Pierrot Rajaonarivelo, before facing up to election with serenity. The Ratsiraka mobility bets more on the international mediation, considering that the HAT members’ position opposes its involvement in the resolution of the crisis. 

Albert Zafy still wants to be the national reconciliation’s father. The professor spreads doubt about his real intentions. Following his boycott of the Addis Ababa meeting which he tagged a meeting of information, the ex-president wants equality between the different mobilities and a fair power sharing. For having already directed a transition before being its next victim, the ex president can possibly claim that he knows what he is talking about. 

Could the meeting of Maputo fail, Andry Rajoelina will be free to govern the transition in a one-sided way. Will the HAT assume its putsch and keep on challenging the international community? Will the TGV step back under the pressure of incoming sanctions which promise to be heavier than ever? The key to the crisis will be the mean to make Andry Rajoelina and his mobility give in to the fact that a government inherited from an unconstitutional change is unacceptable. The change is unavoidable, now it has to be completed within a consensus in order to come back on the legal and democratic way.