Presidential electoral campaign: two diametrically opposed strategies

Assuming that national radio and TV stations gang up on Jean Louis Robinson, his very short presence on air also reveals a relative shortage of funds, compared to the transitional former finance minister’s nearly unlimited financial muscle continually flexed through spectacles and other artefacts expected to rise his popularity up.

Changes or continuity: confusion for listeners

The arguments put forth by the competing candidates are somehow taking us back to the year 2008, when a democratically elected power was still ruling Madagascar. Just as former mayor of Antananarivo city yearning for presidential ambitions did four or five years ago, Hery Rajaonarimampianina is advocating change again in his speeches, although his potential victory would herald but continuity for the current rule. The putsch making clique does not support him for alleged genuine changes on top, does it?

As for the Ravalomanana sphere, its motto is continuity for a ruling power interrupted by a militarily supported putsch in 2009. Jean Louis Robinson’ speeches happen to focus on the recovery of constitutional order and development through the Madagascar Action Plan program which proved efficient by then.

A summary of the respective stands reveals that the leading challenger advocating continuity would eventually bring effective change to the current situation defended by the trailing defending champion advocating change.

Open support for the HERY VAOVAO’s candidate

Andry Rajoelina and his minion may rely on support from artists, rugby players and from the new fortunes built on the transition’s bargains. Political meetins are nothing but large scale popular spectacles for crowds too happy to be granted free access to their favorite stars’ shows to care about political allegiance. Hery Rajaonarimampianina definitly seems willing to appear as the one who wants it the most, and proudly parades his support on stage, even the transitional leader as first, he, who allowed himself to actively get involved in his minion’s electoral campaign by circumventing all electoral rules of engagement through a simple presidential order.

In the facts, the HERY VAOVAO party rallied naught but the least relevant candidates of the presidential election’s first found. Roland Ratsiraka may have accused Hery Rajaonarimampianina of involvement into compromising business, picked his side anyway out of fear of any potential recovery of power by Marc Ravalomanana. Still, he required his support to be handsomely rewarded, could Hery Rajaonarimampianina ever win the competition. The head of the MTS party requires no less than the Prime Minister’s position rabidly coveted by Andry Rajoelina.

Hery Rajaonarimampianina definitely lost the chance to seduce Hajo Andrianainarivelo, Edgard Razafindravahy, Camille Vital and Saraha Georget Rabeharisoa, but finally rallied the “others” behind him, namely Pierrot Rajaonarivelo, Voninahitsy Jean Eugene, Julien Razafimanazato, « Dadafara » Joseph Andriampionona, Patrick Raharimanana, Rakoto Jean Pierre and so on… and proudly parades his arithmetically speaking superior number of supporting political figures.

Jean Louis Robinson keeps leading though

In opposition to Hery Rajaonarimampianina, Jean Louis Robinson does not excessively lend credence to his alliances’ points, but keeps building on Marc Ravalomanana’s political weight. He can anyway rely on contributions from Camille Vital, Saraha Georget Rabeharison, Fetison Andrianirina, Noelson William, Radavidson Andriamparany, Rajemison Rakotomaharo, Sylvain Rabetsaroana… and on the intellectual class’ trust.

Ground level maths with the electoral first round’s results would suggest that Jean Louis Robinson keeps slightly ahead. The unpredictable stand of those who voted for Hajo Andrianainarivelo and Edgard Razafindravahy will be the decisive asset. How likely is effective support from candidates previously dejected by Rajoelina and dealt with like enemies by Hery Rajaonarimampianina during the first electoral knock out round? These weeded out transitional henchmen’s electorates are mainly concentrated on the central highlands, and the isle’s central highlands’ trend favors Jean Louis Robinson.