Economic incentives: when oil justifies putsches

The propaganda organized for Andry Rajoelina was largely centered on economy, first and foremost on the struggle against any shape of monopoly. The overwhelming domination of the agro-industrial giant Tiko was, by then, the main target. The depredations of January 26th, 2009 and the series of processes ordered by the authorities put an end to this supremacy. The economic stake at such level is not yet relevant enough in itself to induce a putsch, even if some operators joined the movement for claiming the market’s overall reset in order to let competition decide. The mother of all incentives is definitely Madagascar’s underground wealth. After the attributions of two major exploitation rights for minerals in Ambatovy and Taolagnaro to Canadian firms, there was still the relatively big cake of crude oil deposits in or out of the Malagasy territory to be shared out.  

Marc Ravalomanana confirmed during his press conference that greed for the country’s  mineral wealth was his eviction’s main incentive. But who is the mastermind? In the past, the ousted president already pointed at “the Frenchies” for being behind the Coup. Their country’s crude oil empire is actually dreaming of undisputedly controlling the whole of Africa. Marc Ravalomanana believes that France would do well to refrain from signing any partnership with this transitional regime, and wait for the election of a new legally elected president. He openly suspected complicity between Paris and Andry Rajoelina’s diktat. The former is dreading the attribution of exclusive rights to the french group Total, or to France itself.  

The “anti-French front”, politically speaking naturally, denounces the attempt to install a new shape of colonization undercover of globalization. France had and has the right to defend, as first financial backer, its interests, be it in order not to lose its historically linked playground . But things havve soared under Marc Ravalomanana’s presidency. Madagascar has opened up to the world, particularly to the American continent and the Anglo-Saxon world in general.    

Having been left behind in the telecommunication and mining sectors, France is dragging its feet on the crude oil market. The Briton Shell and the American Exxon Mobil are currently on top. Chinese investors are moving on well in the south. There might be no place for everyone. Madagascar has not escaped the crude oil induced curse. Short term power stability is miles away from being held for granted. Various other economic interests are always likely to upset any democratically elected power.  The worldwide growing demand for oil combined with a relatively high selling price would make Madagascar’s estimated one billion barrel of black gold reserves is a new Eldorado for the world in crisis.