Rosewood case, politics and impossible reconciliation

The rosewood case undermines the transition. Andry Rajoelina took the risk of deliberately violating the roadmap by dismissing the Minister of Water and Forest Management, and massively underestimated Dr. Joseph Ramiandrisoa. The outgoing minister did reveal the list of major figures involved in rosewood trafficking and protected by the HAT. Less surprising is Mamy Ravatomanga’s name in this list, one of  Rajoelina’s proxies repeatedly targeted by several investigations without been further more bothered a single time.
The prime minister is now being expected to appoint Joseph Ramiandrisoa’s successor basically supposed to be suggested by the Zafy political sphere, just as he was. The eviction of a Minister of Water and Forest Management who has come to seriously embarrass the HAT does not surprise this political group that much. Albert Zafy and his followers prefer the legal weapon to fight against rosewood trafficking organized by the transitional regime. They are targetting Andry Rajoelina as a matter of fact.
The complaint lodged by former President Zafy has been going down like a lead balloon until the court took charge and retrieved the case from the TGV’s justice minister. Of course, Christine Razanamahasoa did drop the case as a whole. The stubborn Zafy sphere does however insist on knowing why.
Omer Beriziky is on his part seemingly distancing his stand from that of the HAT’s leader and does no more look so inclined to bring political spheres together in his government. The Ravalomanana sphere expected the implementation of the roadmap’s Article 20 and its leader’s come back which happens to be increasingly considered by Rajoelina’s supporters, although they are at least just as much uneager to confront Marc Ravalomanana in the presidential election as their boss.
And Andry Rajoelina can definitely no more get these elections out of his mind. He boasts that he would be bound to face anyone without fear… as a matter of fact anyone but Ravalomanana. The putsch maker holds the roadmap’s steps to have been completed so that the CENIT and UN experts are able to address the elections. The repeated blows self inflicted by lightly announced deadline would have taught him prudence for he is now rather relying on his Electoral Commission.
The Minister of Relations between Institutions is being put in charge of the erection of a national reconciliation committee. The Rajoelina sphere will be entitled to the majority in this incoming committee too by providing 33% of seats to opposition movements. This committee will have the say in the implementation of the Amnesty Bill. For lack of consensus within both of the imposed parliament’s chambers, this particular bill’s legitimacy is however still being challenged. The reconciliation committee is likely to be the next one on the gallow. The Zafy sphere already labeled it as political bait and made clear that it would keep away.
As far as the roadmap is concerned, the Rajoelina political sphere says that everything is all right; its opponents say that everything burns. The transition has remained unilateral and the erection of institutions brought no change to this. Inclusiveness and consensus were merely a matter of cover up. Andry Rajoelina still has to enforce recognition of his putsch conducted in 2009 though a democratic way after an unconstitutional mandate which has been turning the island into the world’s poorest nation.